A Blue View

Poll: GOP Gaining Ground On Obama & Dems

Wash Post:

Republicans have significantly narrowed the gap with Democrats on who is trusted to deal with the country's problems and have sharply reduced several of President Obama's main political advantages, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The survey paints a portrait of a restless and dissatisfied electorate at the beginning of a critical election year. More than seven in 10 Americans disapprove of the job Congress is doing, and as many say they're inclined to look for new congressional representation as said so in 1994 and 2006, the last times that control of Congress shifted.

Asked how they would vote in the November House elections, Americans split evenly -- 46 percent siding with the Democrats, 46 percent with the Republicans. As recently as four months ago, Democrats held a 51 to 39 percent advantage on this question.

Obama's overall approval rating is holding steady, with 51 percent of respondents giving him positive marks and 46 percent rating him negatively. On the big domestic issues -- the economy, health care, jobs and the federal budget deficit -- bare majorities of Americans disapprove of the job he is doing.

Only on fighting terrorism does Obama receive majority support for his performance, with 56 percent saying they approve. But the poll shows majority opposition to the administration's plan to try terrorism suspects in federal courts.

Changes in public attitudes were most apparent when Americans were asked whether they trust Obama or congressional Republicans to handle these issues. Last summer, the president enjoyed advantages of more than 20 points over the GOP on the handling of health care, the economy, the deficit and the threat of terrorism. Those leads have all slipped, reflecting both the partisan polarization that has colored the political landscape for many months and the sharp erosion in support for Obama among independents.

But there is about as much time between now and November as has elapsed since Obama held his June advantages. The president and his allies have started a new political offensive, seeking to rebound from the Democrats' loss of the Massachusetts Senate seat long held by the late Edward M. Kennedy and salvage their effort to enact comprehensive health-care reform.

Obama has begun to try to appeal to voters who see Washington as broken by stressing his commitment to bipartisanship, while aggressively trying to rebut GOP criticisms of his policies. At the same time, he has sought to refocus his energy on the economy and job creation, which remains the public's top priority.

When compared with the early months of Obama's presidency, the GOP's overall gains are striking. A year ago, Democrats held a 26-point advantage on dealing with the big issues; that lead is now six points. At the one-month mark, Obama's lead over the Republicans on dealing with the economy was 35 points; it's now five points.

These findings illustrate why the political landscape looks increasingly favorable for Republicans to pick up House and Senate seats in November, with some handicappers predicting major gains of 25 to 30 seats and Republican House leaders expressing confidence that they can win the 40 seats they need to take back the majority. The president's political advisers say privately that some losses are likely but that they are looking to keep them to a minimum.

The poll offers some cautionary notes for both parties. The GOP's image has improved since last year, but a majority of poll respondents still see the party in an unfavorable light (52 percent unfavorable, 44 percent favorable). Fifty percent view the Democratic Party favorably, and 46 percent unfavorably. That marks a new low point for the party in Post-ABC polling.

Slim majorities of independents rate each party negatively, and sizable percentages of that group express skeptical views of both parties. Nearly three in 10 volunteer that they trust "neither" party to handle major issues, and a similar proportion hold unfavorable views of both parties.

Almost half of all poll respondents characterize their mood as generally "anti-incumbent," with just over a third saying they are "pro-incumbent." Two-thirds of independents say they would like to look around, the most to say so in polls since October 1994.

The question asking Americans how they plan to vote in House races, known as the generic congressional vote, is an imperfect predictor of elections, but the GOP gains here amplify the extent of the Democrats' slide since they won the House in 2006. Four years ago, Democrats led Republicans on this question by a wide margin.

Among independents who are registered to vote, it's now a 51 to 35 percent GOP lead on this question, a mirror image of the Democrats' advantage among this group of voters on the eve of the 2006 midterms.

Denialist Alert: Swine Flu Has Killed 1,000 American Children So Far

If 20 school buses worth of kids were to die in a traffic accident, it would be all over the news for weeks. Yet, when 1,000 unvaccinated children are killed by ignorance, irrational fear or neglect, the news is buried within a minor story in the NY Times health section:

Most Americans do not intend to get the swine flu vaccine, assume the pandemic is over and think the flu threat was overblown, according to a poll released Friday by the Harvard School of Public Health.

As of the end of January, only about a fifth of all Americans had had swine flu shots, according to that poll and data released separately by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

And, even though this flu hit children and teenagers the hardest, only about 40 percent of them have had the shots. That figure could improve because 13 percent of adults surveyed by Harvard told pollsters that they still intended to get their children vaccinated. If they do so, slightly more than half of all the country’s children will have been vaccinated, though many young ones who should have had two shots got only one.

Most parents who did not get shots said they felt the threat had passed. The second-most-common reason was fear of the vaccine, even though monitoring of the first 60 million doses showed no unusual rate of side effects ...

Nine children died of confirmed swine flu in the last week of January, according to weekly data released Friday. The C.D.C. estimates that about 1,000 children have succumbed to it since April.

Is The New Approach Working?

David Knowles:

After months of declining poll numbers, President Barack Obama's approval rating has begun rising again. Two new polls, one by Rasmussen Reports and the other by Gallup, show a recent uptick of support for the president as he begins his second year in office.

In its daily tracking poll, Gallup finds that 50 percent of Americans approve of the way Obama is handling his job, while 44 percent say they disapprove. According to the polling organization, the rise in the approval number "follows 11 straight days of Gallup reporting in which Obama's approval rating was below the 50 percent mark." 

 

Rasmussen's daily tracking poll shows that the number of Americans who say they approve of the job the president is doing has risen by 4 points from a Jan. 22 low of 45 percent. Meanwhile, the number of those surveyed by Rasmussen who say they disapprove of Obama has fallen by 5 percentage points since Jan. 23. Overall, 49 percent of those surveyed by Rasmussen say they approve of the way Obama is doing his job, while 50 percent disapprove.

Two recent events – the State of the Union address and the president's question-and answer-session with the Republican caucus – may have provided Obama with a slight boost. It remains to be seen, however, whether the current reversal of poll number erosion will be sustained over the coming days and weeks.

The More Educated You Are, The More You Support Obama & The Dems

What a surprise. People who've been taught to think critically are the least likely to support the GOP. Gallup:

Barack Obama's job approval rating, which has averaged 50% since Dec. 1, continues to be significantly above that average among Americans with postgraduate education (58%). Among educational groups, only postgraduates show a rating above the majority level.

These findings are based on aggregated data from Gallup Daily tracking in December 2009 and January 2010, consisting of more than 25,000 interviews, and at least 4,900 in each educational group.

Postgraduates were a key constituency in Obama's winning 2008 presidential-primary and general-election coalitions, and have been Obama's top supporters among educational groups throughout his presidency.

Since July, when Obama last registered an approval rating of 60%, the gap in his approval rating between postgraduates and other educational groups has grown, with his support declining proportionately less among postgraduates than among the other groups ...

The relationship between educational attainment and support for Obama is not the same within all demographic subgroups. For example, the educational effects are quite pronounced among non-Hispanic whites, with double-digit gaps between postgraduates and those without postgraduate education. In contrast, there are essentially no educational differences among blacks. Roughly 9 in 10 blacks approve of Obama, regardless of their educational background ...

Postgraduate men and women are Obama's greatest supporters among gender and educational groups. Obama fares especially well among women with postgraduate education (64%). Whereas postgraduates are the only educational group among men that shows at least 50% approval for Obama, all four educational groups among women do. Also, there are essentially no gender differences among those with a high school education or less, but notable gender gaps at higher education levels.

Bottom Line

The support of postgraduates, who tend to be more liberal and Democratic in their political orientation, was important to Obama's being elected president. Since he has become president, postgraduates have been among his more reliable supporters, backing him at higher levels than do those in other educational groups.

Poll: 83% of Speech Watchers Approve of Obama's State of the Union Proposals

CBS News (complete poll):

A large majority of Americans who watched President Obama's State of the Union Address generally approve of the proposals he outlined in his speech, according to a CBS News Poll conducted online by Knowledge Networks immediately after the President's address.

Of the randomly selected 522 speech viewers questioned by CBS, 83 percent said they approved of the proposals the President made. Just 17 percent disapproved — typical of the high support a president generally receives among those who choose to watch the State of the Union. In January 2002 — when George W. Bush gave the State of the Union Address a year into his presidency — 85% of speech watchers approved.

Six in 10 of those asked said they thought Mr. Obama conveyed a clear plan for creating jobs, and seven in 10 said his plans for the economy will help ordinary Americans. Another seven in 10 said President Obama has the same priorities for the country as they have.

The same individuals were interviewed both before and after Wednesday's State of the Union, and after the speech, 70 percent said Mr. Obama shares their priorities for the country, up from 57 percent before the speech.

However, a sizable 57 percent said the President will not be able to accomplish all of the goals he set out in his speech. Most Democrats who viewed the speech (63 percent) said the man they elected would be able to accomplish all of his goals, but only 11 percent of Republicans and 33 percent of independent voters agreed.

Most Democrats and independents who watched said the president shares their priorities, while most Republicans did not.

In his speech President Obama said jobs would be "the number one focus in 2010," and here the president seems to have changed the minds of many speech watchers. After listening to the president, 59 percent of viewers said Mr. Obama has a clear plan for creating jobs, while 41 percent said he does not. Before the speech those numbers were almost exactly reversed.

Seventy-six percent of speech watchers generally approved of Mr. Obama's plans for dealing with the economy, up 21 percentage points from before the speech. President Obama laid out a plan for freezing spending for discretionary government programs for three years starting in 2011, and this seems to have resonated — 72 percent of those questioned approved of the plan.

Viewers were also more optimistic about the impact of President Obama's economic plans after watching the speech. Seventy-one percent said his economic plans will help ordinary Americans – up from 55 percent before the speech — and 56 percent were left thinking his plans will reduce the budget deficit in the long run, up from 41 percent.

On health care, President Obama reiterated the need for reform, and most speech watchers (67 percent) approved of the president's plan for dealing with the issue. Prior to his speech, 54 percent said they supported his plans.

The Commander in Chief also garnered approval for his handling to the war in Afghanistan with his speech Wednesday, with those supporting his strategy increasing from 58 percent before the address to 74 percent afterward.

Perhaps predictably, Americans who watched the speech were more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Historically, a President's supporters are more likely than his opponents to watch State of the Union addresses. Forty-four percent of speech viewers in this poll described themselves as Democrats while only 21 percent said they were Republican.

Poll: Americans "Fed Up" With Congress, Both Parties & The Feds; Obama Approval Inches Up

NBC News (complete poll):

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

As President Barack Obama prepares to deliver his first State of the Union address Wednesday night, he will be speaking to an American public that’s fed up with Congress, the country’s two main political parties, and the federal government, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Only 28 percent believe the federal government is “working well” or even works “okay,” versus seven in 10 who think it’s “unhealthy,” “stagnant” or needs large reforms.

By comparison, in December of 2000 — during the height of the disputed Bush-Gore presidential election — 55 percent said the government was working well or okay.

What’s more, a whopping 93 percent believe there’s too much partisan infighting; 84 percent think the special interests have too much influence over legislation; nearly three-quarters say that not enough has been done to regulate Wall Street and the banking industry; and an equal 61 percent complain that both Democrats and Republicans in Congress aren’t willing to compromise.

And the percentage who believe the country is headed in the wrong direction now stands at 58 percent, the highest level of Obama’s presidency.

“The message is a big one,” said Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “The message is, ‘We hate what’s going in Washington.’”

Public’s anger isn’t directed at Obama
Indeed, the NBC/Journal survey finds that nearly half of the country (48 percent) said last week’s stunning election in Massachusetts, in which Republican candidate Scott Brown won a Senate contest in one of the nation’s most Democratic-leaning states, was aimed at sending a message to Washington. Only 15 percent disagreed.

But if the public is fed up with Washington, its anger isn’t necessarily directed at President Obama.

Only 27 percent say they blame him for not being able to find solutions to the country’s problems. By contrast, 48 percent blame Republicans in Congress and 41 percent blame congressional Democrats.

“The president has problems,” Hart adds, “but the Congress has much bigger problems.”

Obama’s numbers, in fact, are virtually unchanged from last week’s poll, which was released on the day of the Massachusetts election.

The president’s approval rating inched up two points to 50 percent, while the number believing his health care plan is a good idea declined two points to 31 percent.

“This data set reminds us that the Scott Brown election has been a huge event in Washington, D.C.,” said McInturff, the Republican pollster. “But around the country, I think this polling would suggest that it had a modest effect.”

Focus more on the economy, less on health care

Poll: Thanks To Democratic Support, Obama's Approval Most Polarized for 1st Year President

Gallup:

The 65 percentage-point gap between Democrats' (88%) and Republicans' (23%) average job approval ratings for Barack Obama is easily the largest for any president in his first year in office, greatly exceeding the prior high of 52 points for Bill Clinton.

Overall, Obama averaged 57% job approval among all Americans from his inauguration to the end of his first full year on Jan. 19. He came into office seeking to unite the country, and his initial approval ratings ranked among the best for post-World War II presidents, including an average of 41% approval from Republicans in his first week in office. But he quickly lost most of his Republican support, with his approval rating among Republicans dropping below 30% in mid-February and below 20% in August. Throughout the year, his approval rating among Democrats exceeded 80%, and it showed little decline even as his overall approval rating fell from the mid-60s to roughly 50%.

"Prior to Ronald Reagan, no president averaged more than a 40-point gap in approval ratings by party during his term; since then, only the elder George Bush has averaged less than a 50-point gap."

Thus, the extraordinary level of polarization in Obama's first year in office is a combination of declining support from Republicans coupled with high and sustained approval from Democrats. In fact, his 88% average approval rating from his own party's supporters is exceeded only by George W. Bush's 92% during Bush's first year in office. Obama's 23% approval among supporters of the opposition party matches Bill Clinton's for the lowest for a first-year president. But Clinton was less popular among Democrats than Obama has been to date, making Obama's ratings more polarized.

Obama still has three years left in his first term and possibly seven more as president, so there is much time for the polarization of his approval ratings to subside. However, if the current level of polarization persists through the end of his term, Obama would exceed Bush as the president with the most polarized approval ratings.

Bush's average Republican-Democratic gap for his eight years in office was 61 points. This included the record gap for a single approval rating: 83 points, which occurred twice -- in September 2004 (95% Republican, 12% Democratic) and October 2004 (94% Republican, 11% Democratic).

The Best Poll To Date On Massachusetts' Opinions

Warning signs a plenty in these results for Obama, the Dems and GOP. Though the first two haven't yet figured out their response, they at least realize they were being sent a message. The GOP, blinded by superficial, headline analysis, doesn't seem to realize they were being sent a message too. From the  Wash Post (complete results):

Dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, antipathy toward federal-government activism and opposition to the Democrats' health-care proposals drove the upset election of Republican senatorial candidate Scott Brown in Massachusetts, according to a post-election survey of state voters.

The poll by The Washington Post, the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard University's School of Public Health underscores how significantly voter anger has turned toward Democrats in Washington and how dramatically the political landscape has shifted during President Obama's first year in office.

The findings do not provide a political portrait of the entire country in the opening weeks of the 2010 election year. But given that Massachusetts has been reliably Democratic in presidential elections, the results of Tuesday's special Senate election and the reasons voters sided with Brown over Democrat Martha Coakley speak to broader shifts that have taken place across the country over the past year.

These changes were echoed in national polling and helped elect Republican governors in Virginia and New Jersey in November. Democrats have been put squarely on the defensive. Obama and Democratic leaders are looking for ways to alter the political dynamics in the hope of heading off potentially sizable losses in their congressional majorities in this November's elections.

Sixty-three percent of Massachusetts special-election voters say the country is seriously off track, and Brown captured two-thirds of these voters on Tuesday. In November 2008, Obama won decisively among the more than 80 percent of Massachusetts voters seeing the country as off-course.

Nearly two-thirds of Brown's supporters say their vote was intended at least in part to express opposition to the Democratic agenda in Washington, but few say the senator-elect should simply work to stop it. Three-quarters of those who voted for Brown say they would like him to work with Democrats to get Republican ideas into legislation in general; nearly half say so specifically about health-care legislation.

When Obama was elected, 63 percent of Massachusetts voters said government should do more to solve problems, according to exit polling. In the new poll, that number slipped to 50 percent, with 47 percent saying government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals.

Like Obama, Coakley won the votes of more than 70 percent of those seeking government involvement, but the bigger pool of voters seeing government overreach helped Brown claim victory.

Health care topped jobs and the economy as the most important issue driving Massachusetts voters, but among voters for Brown, it was closely followed by the economy and jobs, and "the way Washington is working."

Overall, 43 percent of Massachusetts voters say they support the health-care proposals advanced by Obama and congressional Democrats; 48 percent oppose them. Among Brown's supporters, eight in 10 said they were opposed to the measures, 66 percent of them strongly so.

Sizable majorities of voters for Brown see the Democrats' plan, if passed, as making things worse for their families, the country and Massachusetts. Few Coakley voters see these negatives, and most of those backing her see clear benefits for the country if health-care reform becomes law. Less than half of Coakley's supporters say they or the state would be better off as a result.

Among Brown's supporters who say the health-care reform effort in Washington played an important role in their vote, the most frequently cited reasons were concerns about the process, including closed-door dealing and a lack of bipartisanship. Three in 10 highlighted these political maneuverings as the motivating factor; 22 percent expressed general opposition to reform or the current bill.

Voters for Coakley, by contrast, cited the need to cover the uninsured and fix the health-care system as the main reasons the issue drove their votes.

Massachusetts enacted a universal health-care plan several years ago, and the survey shows that it remains highly popular. Overall, 68 percent of the voters in Tuesday's election say they support the plan, including slightly more than half of those voting for Brown.

Obama also remains popular in Massachusetts. More than six in 10 of those who voted approve of his job performance, with 92 percent of Coakley's voters expressing satisfaction, along with 33 percent of Brown's. More than half of Brown's backers say Obama was not a factor in their vote.

But the Obama administration's policies draw some fire, with nearly half of all special-election voters either dissatisfied or angry about those initiatives. Three-quarters of Brown's supporters expressed the negative view.

GOP policies prove even less popular, with 58 percent of Massachusetts voters saying they are dissatisfied or angry about what Republicans in Congress are offering. Among those voting for Brown, 60 percent give positive marks to the policies of congressional Republicans, but a sizable number, 37 percent, offer a negative appraisal.

The Massachusetts election brought another indication that the Obama coalition from 2008 has splintered, just as the results in gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey showed in November.

Compared with the 2008 presidential results, Coakley suffered significant erosion among whites, independents and working-class voters, according to the survey.

In Massachusetts, independents made up about half of Tuesday's electorate, according to the poll, and they supported Brown by nearly 2 to 1. Obama carried Bay State independents by 17 percentage points in 2008. Among those voting for Brown, 28 percent said they backed Obama over Republican John McCain.

"Poll: Obama’s Ratings on Health Care, Economy Drop Lower"

The Caucus:

Fewer Americans now approve of the way that President Barack Obama is handling the economy and health care, pushing his overall job rating below the crucial 50 percent mark, according to the latest CBS News poll.

The poll finds 46 percent approve of the job Mr. Obama is doing as president, while 41 percent disapprove. His approval rating is down from 50 percent in a New York Times/CBS News poll last month, and 56 percent from October, to its lowest level in Times or CBS News polls to date.

The president’s marks for handling the top domestic issues are even lower, according to the poll. On the economy, 41 percent approve, down 6 points in the last month to a new low. And just 36 percent approve of the way Mr. Obama is handling health care, also down 6 points to a new low. Most, 54 percent, disapprove.

The public extends its low marks for handling health care to Congress. The poll found 57 percent disapproving of the way Democrats in Congress have dealt with the issue, and 61 percent disapproving of the way Republicans have. Few are satisfied with how the changes under consideration in Congress will expand coverage, control costs, or regulate the health insurance industry. Instead, most say they will either go too far or won’t go far enough.

Mr. Obama receives better reviews in the poll on the issue of terrorism. Less than three weeks since the attempted attack on Christmas Day, most Americans approve of the way he is handling the threat of terrorism, and, specifically, how his administration responded to the attempted attack.

And while two in three Americans now say another attack in the United States is likely within the next few months, a broad majority also expresses confidence in the government’s ability to protect its citizens from future attacks (though just 15 percent have a great deal of confidence).

Poll: Support Jumps For Obama & Health Care Bill

CNN reports that liberals and young people are coming home to Obama & the Senate bill (Read what Joe Klein thinks these results imply for the progressives who want to kill the bill):

Support for the health care reform bill that Democrats are pushing through the Senate has risen six points since early December, according to a new national poll, and although a majority of Americans still oppose its passage, only four in ten agree with Senate Republicans that the bill is too liberal.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey, released Monday, also indicates that President Barack Obama's approval rating has experienced a similar six-point rise.

According to the poll, 42 percent of Americans, based on what they've read or heard about the bill, support Senate Democrat's legislation. That's up from 36 percent in a poll conducted December 2-3. Nonetheless, a majority of people questioned in the survey, 56 percent, oppose the bill.

The End Of Polling (cartoon)

 

New NBC Poll: "For Democrats, the red flags are flying at full mast"

A new poll contains lots of bad news for Obama and the Dems. The news for the GOP, however, isn't all good. From the Wall St Journal (full poll results):

Less than a year after Inauguration Day, support for the Democratic Party continues to slump, amid a difficult economy and a wave of public discontent, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

The findings underscored how dramatically the political landscape has changed during the Obama administration's first year. In January, despite the recession and financial crisis, voters expressed optimism about the future, the new president enjoyed soaring approval ratings, and congressional leaders promised to swiftly pass his ambitious agenda.

In December's survey, for the first time, less than half of Americans approved of the job President Barack Obama was doing, marking a steeper first-year fall for this president than his recent predecessors.

Also for the first time this year, the electorate was split when asked which party it wanted to see in charge after the 2010 elections. For months, a clear plurality favored Democratic control.

The survey suggests that public discontent with Mr. Obama and his party is being driven by an unusually grim view of the country's status and future prospects.

A majority of Americans believe the U.S. is in decline. And a plurality now say the U.S. will be surpassed by China in 20 years as the top power.

Democrats' problems seem in part linked to their ambitious health-care plan, billed as the signature achievement of Mr. Obama's first year. Now, for the first time, more people said they would prefer Congress did nothing on health care than who wanted to see the overhaul enacted.

"For Democrats, the red flags are flying at full mast," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. "What we don't know for certain is: Have we reached a bottoming-out point?"

The biggest worry for Democrats is that the findings could set the stage for gains by Republican candidates in next year's elections. Support from independents for the president and his party continues to dwindle. In addition, voters intending to back Republicans expressed far more interest in the 2010 races than those planning to vote for Democrats, illustrating how disappointment on the left over attempts by party leaders to compromise on health care and other issues is damping enthusiasm among core party voters.

But public displeasure with Democrats wasn't translating directly into warmth for Republicans. Twenty-eight percent of voters expressed positive feelings about the GOP -- a number that has remained constant through the Democrats' decline over the summer and fall. Only 5% said their feelings toward the Republicans were "very positive."

And in one arena, Afghanistan, Mr. Obama appeared to have some success in winning support for his planned troop surge. Liberals remain largely opposed to the strategy, but in fewer numbers compared with before Mr. Obama made his case in a speech at West Point. Overall, by 44% to 41%, a plurality believe his strategy is the right approach.

New NBC Poll: Tea Party Tops Democrats And Republicans

The same poll posted about in "For Democrats, the red flags are flying at full mast", also found this (as reported by the Wall St Journal):

The loosely organized group made of up mostly conservative activists and independent voters that’s come to be known as the Tea Party movement currently boasts higher favorability ratings than either the Democratic or Republican Parties, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll coming out later today.

More than four in 10, 41%, of respondents said they had a very or somewhat favorable view of the Tea Party movement, while 24% said they had a somewhat or very negative view of the group. The Tea Party movement gained notoriety over the summer following a series of protests in Washington, D.C. and other cities over government spending and other U.S. economic policies.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party, which controls both the White House and Congress, has a 35% positive rating compared with a 45% negative rating.

The Republican Party identifies closest to the Tea Party movement’s ideology, but the group has also caused splits within the GOP. Republicans currently hold a 28% favorability rating compared with a 43% negative one.

Poll: Views Of Obama Up On Afghanistan, Down On Everything Else (Especially Health Reform)

Wash Post:

As the Senate struggles to meet a self-imposed, year-end deadline to complete work on legislation to overhaul the nation's health-care system, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds the public generally fearful that a revamped system would bring higher costs while worsening the quality of their care.

A bare majority of Americans still believe government action is needed to control runaway health-care costs and expand coverage to the roughly 46 million people without insurance. But after a year of exhortation by President Obama and Democratic leaders and a high-octane national debate, there is minimal public enthusiasm for the kind of comprehensive changes in health care now under consideration. There are also signs the political fight has hurt the president's general standing with the public.

One bright spot for the president in the poll is Afghanistan. His announcement Dec. 1 that he was ordering an additional 30,000 U.S. troops to that country, to bolster the 68,000 already there, wins majority support. More than half of all Americans, 52 percent, approve of how he is handling the situation there, up from 45 percent before the speech.

But Obama and the Democrats have had decidedly less success convincing the public that their health proposals will bring positive change. More than half of those polled, 53 percent, see higher costs for themselves if the proposed changes go into effect than if the current system remains intact. About as many (55 percent) say the overall cost of the national health-care system would go up more sharply. Moreover, just 37 percent say the quality of their care would be better under a new system; 50 percent see it as better under the current set-up.

Even among those who presumably stand to benefit most from a major restructuring of the insurance market -- the nearly one in 5 adults without coverage -- there are doubts about the changes under consideration. Those without insurance are evenly divided on the question of whether their care would be better if the system were overhauled.

Poll: Troop Surge Support Is Highly Partisan; Overall 51% Approve, 43% Oppose

NY Times:

A bare majority of Americans support President Obama’s plan to send 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan, but many are skeptical that the United States can count on Afghanistan as a partner in the fight or that the escalation would reduce the chances of a domestic terrorist attack, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

In the wake of the president’s address last week explaining his decision, the poll found a 10 percentage point increase in public approval of Mr. Obama’s handling of the war in Afghanistan since last month, to 48 percent. But the shift reflects a twist on the political polarization that has marked much of Mr. Obama’s first year in office: Republican and independent voters are rallying behind Mr. Obama as he presses for the troop escalation, while Democrats remain decidedly cool to his war plans.

The poll showed a steady slide in support for Mr. Obama as he approaches the end of his first year in office. His job approval rating has now hit 50 percent, the lowest yet in this poll; it was 68 percent at its peak in April. The percentage of Americans who approve of his handling of the economy has dropped to 47 percent from 54 percent in October. And 42 percent approve of the way he is handling health care, down five percentage points in the last few months ...

The support for Mr. Obama’s Afghanistan policy is decidedly ambivalent, and the nation’s appetite for any intervention is limited. Over all, Americans support sending the troops in by 51 percent to 43 percent, while 55 percent said setting a date to begin troop withdrawals was a bad idea.

Nearly 6 in 10 respondents said they did not want troops to remain there for more than two years; that includes 32 percent who said troops should leave within a year. Mr. Obama said that he would begin withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan in July 2011, but the administration has said the time it takes to withdraw would be contingent on conditions on the ground.

Just under half thought the United States would succeed in what Mr. Obama said was a central mission: preventing terrorists from using Afghanistan as a base of support, while 39 percent said they thought an increased effort in Afghanistan would make the United States safer from a domestic terrorist attack.

The poll also found that despite Mr. Obama’s address to the nation last week, in which he sought to lay out a justification for the mission, nearly half of the respondents said that he had not clearly explained his plan.

The poll underscores the extent to which Mr. Obama has defied Democrats on the war. About two-thirds of Republicans support the troop escalation, while 53 percent of Democrats oppose it. Conversely, most Republicans oppose Mr. Obama’s proposal to set a date to start pulling out troops, while Democrats applaud it.

The percentage of Republicans who approve of Mr. Obama’s Afghanistan policy has increased 19 percentage points since November to 42 percent; 55 percent of Democrats approved, little-changed since last month ...

The poll suggested a divide between Democrats who approve of Mr. Obama’s job performance over all, even as they are upset with Afghanistan, and Republicans who disapprove of Mr. Obama’s job performance over all, even if they are happy with what he is doing in Afghanistan ...

More than 80 percent of Democrats said they approved of Mr. Obama’s job performance, compared with 19 percent of Republicans and 45 percent of independents.  Nearly 70 percent of Republicans said the United States was doing the right thing by fighting in Afghanistan; fewer than half of the Democrats shared that view. Over 60 percent of Republicans said the additional troops would make the United States safer from terrorism, compared with 28 percent of Democrats.

64% Of Americans Agree That "America's safety and security are at stake in Afghanistan"

CNN (full results):

Americans agree with the Afghanistan policy Barack Obama announced on Tuesday night at West Point in large measure because they agree with the arguments the president made in that speech, according to a new national poll.

In his prime time address at the U.S. Military Academy, where Obama spelled out his decision to send an additional 30,000 U.S. troops to the war, the president stressed that America's safety and security are at stake in Afghanistan. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation national survey released Sunday morning indicates 64 percent of Americans agree with the president, with one in three saying the country's safety and security is not at stake in Afghanistan. According to the poll, 63 percent of people questioned also agree with Obama that the U.S. action in Afghanistan is morally justified.

"That's one major way that Afghanistan is different from Iraq in the public's mind," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "At the time of the Iraq surge in 2007, most Americans questioned whether that war was justified."

The president met with military and civilian advisers for three months before announcing his Afghanistan decision. Obama said he needed that time to review the options available. Did he take too long to decide? Fifty-six percent say no, with 43 percent feeling three months was not necessary.

But Obama also said that his objectives in Afghanistan included preventing terrorists from re-establishing a base of operations in that country and establish a stable government that the terrorists will not be able to overthrow. The poll indicates less than four in ten believe that those goals will be reached.

"As a result, nearly six in ten say defeat is possible, but an equal number also say victory is possible. Most Americans think a stalemate is the likeliest outcome, something that may make an exit strategy harder to implement if that prediction comes true," adds Holland.

Forty-two percent of people questioned in the poll say they watched the president's Tuesday night address on Afghanistan. Of those who viewed the speech, 34 percent say it makes them more likely to support Obama's polices on Afghanistan, 16 percent said the address makes them less likely to back Obama's strategy, and 50 percent said it had no effect.

Obama as Reagan

Charles Franklin:

 

I've been struck for some time by the similarity of circumstance between Presidents Reagan and Obama. Both replaced deeply unpopular predecessors. Both enjoyed significant gains for their party in both houses of Congress. Both faced "worst since the depression" economic circumstances. And each in his own very different ways attempted to reshape government in the early months in office.

With a bit more than 10 months of approval data on Obama, we can now make a more meaningful comparison than was possible at the first 100 days look.

The similarity of approval trajectories is striking for Reagan and Obama. Reagan started lower, but since the 3rd month of office the two have moved along quite similar paths.

Of the ten post-war presidents in the chart, Reagan and Obama currently stand as the two lowest at this point in their first term. (Clinton fell lower early, but was recovering at this point before another decline and rise.) Reagan finished as the second lowest just before his midterm in 1982, ahead of only Truman. It happens that the economy under Reagan also bottomed out in November 1982, the worst possible time for the president and his party.

(I exclude Johnson because of his entry into office after Kennedy's midterm and Ford because he took office just 3 months before the 1974 mid-term. I keep Truman because he assumed the presidency very early in Roosevelt's fourth term, effectively serving the full term.)

Whether Obama continues to look like Reagan seems to me more likely to be driven by the same force-- the economy. While health care reform and Afghanistan will surely play a role in the public's view of Obama, I think the economy remains the most crucial driver of opinion. In this the administration can hope that the upturn in GDP in the third quarter, and the small down-tick in unemployment in November, are signals that the early quarters of 2010 will see further improvements. If so, the Democrats may avoid the terrible conjunction of midterm and economic bottom that cost Republicans 26 seats in the 1982 House elections. And President Obama may not compete with Reagan to see which will be the second most unpopular president at midterm time. But there are no guarantees of this and the parallels remain quite striking.

Poll: Today's GOP Is More Conservative And Divided (But Not On Obama)

Wash Post (poll data):

The Republican rank and file is largely in sync with GOP lawmakers in their staunch opposition to efforts by President Obama and Democrats to enact major health-care legislation, but a new Washington Post poll also reveals deep dissatisfaction among GOP voters with the party's leadership as well as ideological and generational differences that may prove big obstacles to the party's plans for reclaiming power.

Republicans and GOP-leaning independents are overwhelmingly negative about Obama and the Democratic Party more broadly, with nearly all dissatisfied with the administration's policies and almost half saying they are "angry" about them. About three-quarters have a more basic complaint, saying Obama does not stand for "traditional American values." More than eight in 10 say there is no chance they would support his reelection.

But for all the talk among Republican elected officials about a nascent comeback after gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey this month, there is also broad frustration among Republican voters about the party's direction, detachment from its congressional representatives and a schism over its priorities.

Fewer than half of the Republicans and Republican-leaners surveyed by The Washington Post see the party's leadership as taking the GOP in the "right direction," down sharply from this time four years ago. About four in 10 are dissatisfied with the policy proposals being offered by congressional Republicans, and similar numbers see the current crop of GOP legislators as out of touch with their problems and personal values. Nearly a third say the Republicans in Congress are not standing up for the party's core values.

This portrait of how Republicans see their party is part of an ongoing series of stories examining the GOP at the midpoint between its disastrous losses in the 2006 and 2008 elections, and the midterm elections in 2010 and the 2012 presidential contest. The findings are based on a national survey of 1,306 adults, including additional interviews with Republicans and Republican-leaning independents and a set of focus groups in Arapahoe County, Colo., a GOP-leaning county that Obama carried handily in 2008 ...

Nearly three in 10 of those surveyed expressed no opinion about who in the GOP best reflects the party's principles or volunteered that no one does. Topping the list of named leaders was former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, the party's 2008 vice presidential nominee.

In the poll, taken amid the media whirlwind surrounding the release of her memoir "Going Rogue," more cite Palin than other Republicans as best reflecting the party's core values and as the top vote-getter in hypothetical presidential nomination contests. But on neither question did she exceed 20 percent backing among all Republicans ...

In the meantime, Republicans are faced with significant discord within their ranks. They are divided over how much to work with Obama on energy and climate-change legislation. There are generational differences on the role of religion in public life and how much emphasis the party should put on hot-button issues such as same-sex marriage. And the party's moderate and conservative wings have widely divergent views on a number of issues.

Kaiser Health Poll: Public Option Not That Important To Most, Even Dems

As you can see from the 'Partisan Differences' chart below, the Public Option is 7th or 8th in importance to everyone: Dems, Indies and Repubs. From the Kaiser Family Foundation (poll, charts):

The November Kaiser Health Tracking Poll shows little movement in measures of public opinion about health reform from recent months.

Among the new findings is a ranking of the public's top priorities from among a list of elements of the legislation. There were both similarities and differences in priorities across partisan groups: while assuring the availability of affordable plans ranked in the top three priorities for Democrats, Republicans and independents, deficit neutrality ranked in the top three priorities for Republicans and independents and providing enough government financial help so as many uninsured people as possible can get health insurance ranked in the top three for Democrats.  Creating a public option ranked near the bottom of this list among all three groups. Even so, when asked if they favor or oppose having a public plan to compete with private insurers, a substantial a majority of Americans (59%) say they support the idea.

The poll asked supporters and opponents of reform to give their reasons in their own words and then tallied the results.  When asked to explain their support for reform in their own words, backers were most likely to express concerns about access, followed by concerns about the cost of health care and a belief that we need to fix the health care system.  Opponents also cited costs, fearing that they would go up as a result of reform, the belief that other national priorities were more important, and concerns about the government becoming too involved in health care, among other reasons for their opposition.

The poll also found that for the first time this year, more people report having seen anti-reform ads over the previous week than report seeing pro-reform ads.

The November poll, the eighth in a series designed and analyzed by the Foundation’s public opinion survey research team, examines voters’ specific health care issue interests and experiences and perceptions about health care reform.

Obama Job Approval Down to 49%

Gallup:

President becomes fourth fastest to slip below the majority approval level.

The latest Gallup Daily tracking results show 49% of Americans approving of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, putting him below the majority approval level for the first time in his presidency.

Although the current decline below 50% has symbolic significance, most of the recent decline in support for Obama occurred in July and August. He began July at 60% approval. The ongoing, contentious debate over national healthcare reform has likely served as a drag on his public support, as have continuing economic problems. Americans are also concerned about the Obama administration's reliance on government spending to solve the nation's problems and the growing federal budget deficit. Since September, Obama's approval rating had been holding in the low 50s and, although it has reached 50% numerous times, it had never dropped below 50% until now.

Of the post-World War II presidents, Obama now is the fourth fastest to drop below the majority approval level, doing so in his 10th month on the job. Gerald Ford dropped below 50% approval during his third month in office, and Bill Clinton did so in his fourth month. Ronald Reagan, like Obama, also dropped below 50% in his 10th month in office, though Reagan's drop occurred a few days sooner in that month (Nov. 13-16, 1981) than did Obama's (Nov. 17-19, 2009).

But all presidents except John Kennedy dropped below the majority approval level at some point in their presidencies, and all recovered after the first time below this mark to go back above 50% approval.

Half recovered quickly -- Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, and George W. Bush were back above 50% approval the same month they dipped below that mark, and Lyndon Johnson returned to majority approval in his second month after his initial sub-50% rating. The remainder continued to sink further below 50% and remained there for many months, but eventually recovered, with Ford's effort boosted by the Mayaguez incident. George H.W. Bush took the longest time to recover, going more than a year before his approval rating was restored to the majority level ...

Notably, most of the presidents who fell below 50% during their first term recovered in plenty of time to be re-elected. This list includes Truman, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, and George W. Bush. Ford and Jimmy Carter recovered in the short term but could not sustain improvement long enough to convince voters they deserved a second term, and, as noted, the elder Bush recovered after he was voted out of office. Johnson may well have joined that list had he decided to seek a second term. And Eisenhower did not go below majority approval until after he had been re-elected.

Thus, Obama's descent below 50% is an important symbolic milestone in his presidency, but history suggests the odds of his regaining majority approval are high, and he could do so relatively soon, particularly since the individual nightly numbers for him in recent days have been right around the 50% mark. History would suggest his current loss of majority approval bears little relation to his chances of being elected to a second term in 2012.

55% of Americans "express confidence that the president will choose an Afghanistan strategy that will work"

Wash Post:

The president is expected in the coming weeks to roll out a new approach for handling the conflict in Afghanistan, and in a stopover at Alaska's Elmendorf Air Force Base on his way to Asia, he pledged to deliver "public support back home" for the war effort.

He has a formidable sales job ahead to accomplish that: 52 percent of respondents in this poll see the war in Afghanistan as not worth its costs, and nearly as many trust the Republicans in Congress to deal with the war as trust Obama.

Ratings of the president's handling of Afghanistan have plummeted since the summer, turning what had been one of his most favorably regarded issues into another nearly even split: 45 percent approve of how he is dealing with it, while 48 percent disapprove. Of particular concern for the White House is approval among independents, which has slipped to 39 percent, a new low.

Nevertheless, a majority of Americans, 55 percent, express confidence that the president will choose an Afghanistan strategy that will work. But even here, there is an almost even split in public opinion about how many more troops Obama should send as part of a new approach to the war.

Asked to choose between a larger influx of troops to fight al-Qaeda and the Taliban and train the Afghan military, and a smaller number of new U.S. forces more narrowly focused on training, Americans divide 46 percent for the bigger number, 45 percent for the lower one.

Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, has requested about 40,000 additional troops to fight the Taliban insurgency, but other officials, including Ambassador Karl W. Eikenberry, a former general, have cast doubts about sending so many fresh forces to the country ...

Overall, a slim majority in the poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday, say Obama is giving U.S. military leaders "about the right amount" of influence in deciding U.S. policy in Afghanistan. Just over a third, 35 percent, say military leaders have "too little influence," and 9 percent say they have "too much." Nearly six in 10 Republicans say these leaders are not being given a big enough role; far fewer independents and Democrats agree with that assessment.

One aspect of the war that gets a more uniform reaction is Afghan President Hamid Karzai: Most Americans across party lines have little or no confidence that he will be a reliable partner for the United States, and even fewer see him as able to oversee an Afghan army that could take over security operations at some point.

Poll: The More Americans Know About Health Reform, The More They Support It. And They Don't Like Stupak.

Two particularly interesting findings from this new poll:

• Stupak is unpopular: 56% of Americans favor allowing women in the Public Option to use their own money to pay for their abortions (what a weird sentence to write ... as if other people should have any say in how Americans spend their money)
  
• Knowledge leads to support: Of the people who have a "good, basic understanding" of the changes being proposed, 56% support health reform. Of those who do not, 57% oppose it.
  

The Wash Post (for other results from this poll, see Obama's Favorability "holding steady" & Watch Out Incumbents):

As the Senate prepares to take up legislation aimed at overhauling the nation's health-care system, President Obama and the Democrats are still struggling to win the battle for public opinion. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows Americans deeply divided over the proposals under consideration and majorities predicting higher costs ahead.

But Republican opponents have done little better in rallying the public opposition to kill the reform effort. Americans continue to support key elements of the legislation, including a mandate that employers provide health insurance to their workers and access to a government-sponsored insurance plan for those people without insurance.

Over the past few months, public opinion has solidified, leaving Obama and the Democrats with the political challenge of enacting one of the most ambitious pieces of domestic legislation in decades in the face of a nation split over the wisdom of doing so. In the new poll, 48 percent say they support the proposed changes; 49 percent are opposed.

With the bill through the House, Senate Democrats are now looking for the votes to enact their version of the legislation and keep the reform effort moving forward. Whatever the outcome of the health-care debate, it will have a powerful influence in shaping the political climate for next year's midterm elections.

The House bill contains a highly controversial provision prohibiting abortion coverage for those insured under a new public insurance plan as well as those who received federal subsidies to purchase private insurance. In the poll, 61 percent say they support barring coverage for abortions for those receiving public subsidies, but if private funds were used to pay for abortion expenses, the numbers flipped. With segregated private money used to cover abortion procedures, 56 percent say insurance offered to those using government assistance should be able to include such coverage.

The new poll provides ammunition for both advocates and opponents of reform. For opponents, a clear area of public concern centers on cost -- 52 percent say an altered system would probably make their own care more expensive, and 56 percent see the overall cost of health care in the country going up as a result.

Few see clear benefits in exchange for higher expenses. Rather, there has been a small but significant increase in the number (now 37 percent) who anticipate their care deteriorating under a revamped system, putting that number in line with opinion in July 1994, just before President Bill Clinton's health-care reform efforts fizzled.

Among those with insurance, three times as many continue to see worse rather than better coverage options ahead (39 to 13 percent), and fewer than half of those who lack insurance see better options under a changed system. Six in 10 see it as "very" or "somewhat" likely that many private insurers would be forced out of business by a government-sponsored insurance plan, a potential result that GOP leaders frequently warn about.

But reform proponents have other findings to bolster their case. Two-thirds of those surveyed support one of the basic tenets of the reform plan, a new requirement that all employers with payrolls of $500,000 or more provide health insurance coverage for their employees or face fines.

Poll: Obama's Favorability "holding steady" & Watch Out Incumbents

Other findings from the new Wash Post poll (also see The More Americans Know About Health Reform, The More They Support It. And They Don't Like Stupak.):

Obama continues to garner broadly positive ratings from the public. His overall approval rating stands at 56 percent, holding steady in Post-ABC polls since the late summer. More, 61 percent, say they have an overall favorable impression of him, and a slim majority continues to see him as "about right" ideologically (four in 10 consider him "too liberal."

The president, who is on a 10-day visit to Asia, gets his top mark on handling international affairs, and also picks up majority approval on dealing with the threat of terrorism. But Americans are more divided over his performance on other key issues, with nearly even splits in satisfaction with his work on health care, the economy and the situation in Afghanistan. On each of these three issues, intensity runs against the president, with significantly higher numbers expressing "strong" disapproval as strident approval. Obama receives generally negative reviews on his handling of the federal budget deficit, with 53 percent disapproving of his actions on that front.

Obama continues to be lifted by weakness in the opposition. In addition to his double-digit lead over congressional Republicans on health care, the president has a 15-point advantage on handling the nation's still-struggling economy. More broadly, Democrats continue to have the edge as the party more trusted to deal with the country's main problems over the next few years and when it comes to being more empathetic and more in tune with people's values.

But there are also evident signs of an anti-incumbent mood in the new survey, which would disproportionately hurt the majority Democrats next fall should they hold. Most see the country as headed pretty seriously off on the wrong track and half of all Americans say they are inclined to look around for someone new to support for Congress; just 38 percent are inclined to reelect their member of Congress. These numbers are similar to those from November 1993, one year before Republicans took back control of the House and Senate and close to those from May 2006, six months before Democrats re-captured the Congress.

Among independents, nearly two-thirds say they are inclined to seek new representatives. Independents also about evenly divided over which party better represents their personal values and give Democrats a narrow advantage on being more in tune with "needs of people like you." More than a quarter of independents do not trust either party to adequately deal with the country's primary concerns in the coming years.

With Whom Is Obama Most Unpopular?

Marc Ambinder:

From the crosstabs of a new poll by Pew, here's a look at the Anti-Obama Coalition, followed by the percentages of people within a certain cleavage who approve of the job he is doing as president.

With independents over the age of 50 -- just 37%.
Among whites in the South -- 33%
Among white independents -- 39%
Among white evangelicals -- 28%
Among married men -- 42%
Among everyone over 65 -- 44%
Among those earning more than $75,000 -- 44%

And with whom is Obama most popular?

The religiously unaffiliated -- 60%
Non white people -- 75%
Those aged 18 to 29 -- 59%
Catholics -- 52%
Unmarried women -- 59%
Black people -- 91%
White Democrats -- 72%
White college graduates -- 44%

While The Democratic Party Is Hurting, The GOP Has Fallen Off A Cliff

The Daily Dish:

Both [parties] have slumped since the beginning of the year (although the Dems do seem to be experiencing a mild recovery since September). But here's the thing: the Dems have gone from a +10 favorable rating in January to a - 10 right now; but the Republicans have sunk from a -30 to -60. However loathed Pelosi and Reid are ... Boehner and McConnell are in worse straits. Pollster's assessment of party i.d. this year:

Poll: Americans Want Public Option More Than Bipartisan Bill

ABC News asked this question in their recent poll:

Which of these would you prefer – (a plan that includes some form of government-sponsored health insurance for people who can’t get affordable private insurance, but is approved without support from Republicans in Congress); or (a plan that is approved with support from Republicans in Congress, but does not include any form of government-sponsored health insurance for people who can’t get affordable private insurance)?

51% said they preferred the public option; 37 % said they preferred a bill with some support from Republicans in Congress. 6% said neither and 7% expressed no opinion.

"Gloom Spreads on Economy, but GOP Doesn't Gain." Public Option Does.

Wall St Journal (full results of the poll):

Americans are growing increasingly pessimistic about the economy after a mild upswing of attitudes in September. But Republicans haven't been able to profit politically from the economic gloom, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

The survey found a country in a decidedly negative mood, nearly a year after the election of President Barack Obama. For the first time during the Obama presidency, a majority of Americans sees the country as being on the wrong track.

Fifty-eight percent of those polled say the economic slide still has a ways to go, up from 52% in September and back to the level of pessimism expressed in July. Only 29% said the economy had "pretty much hit bottom," down from 35% last month.

But a dark national view of how everybody in Washington is conducting the public's business appears to be preventing Republicans from benefiting from concerns about the direction of the country or the Democrat-led government's handling of the economy, as the minority party often does.

In fact, disapproval of the Republican Party actually has ticked upward, along with the public's general pessimism. Asked which political party should control Congress after next year's midterm elections, Democrats now hold a clear edge over the GOP, 46% to 38%, a month after the Republicans were nearly as popular. In September, the Democratic edge was 43% to 40%.

"There was a bounce-back surge for Republicans, and that's stalled," said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who conducted the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll with Democratic pollster Peter Hart. "The mood in America may be blue, but attitudes toward Washington are just jet black," Mr. Hart said ...

Overall, respondents sent Mr. Obama mixed signals on his top policy initiatives. His health-care plan continues to face a plurality of opposition -- 42% say it is a bad idea, against 38% who say it is a good idea. But a key flash point in the health-care debate is showing steadily increasing support.

A government-run insurance plan that competes with private insurance plans -- the so-called public option -- is now backed by 48%, compared with 42% who oppose it. In September, 48% opposed it while 46% supported it. In the rough month of August, when noisy town-hall meetings were tarnishing the president's health-care push, 47% opposed the public option and only 43% favored it.

The latest exclusive WSJ/NBC poll makes for bad reading for both parties. WSJ's Gerald F. Seib says it's part of the public's growing trend of disillusionment with Democrats and Republicans.

That has begun redounding to the Democrats' advantage in Congress, he said. "The public sees them getting something done of real importance," Mr. Emanuel said ...

On Afghanistan, the public is signaling it can support a presidential decision to send more troops, but only so far. Some 47% said they would either strongly or somewhat support sending more troops into the eight-year-old fight, with 43% saying they somewhat or strongly opposed such a move. Last month, 51% said they opposed sending more troops, compared with 44% who approved of such a move.

But asked specifically about sending an additional 40,000 troops, which the U.S. commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, has requested, 49% said that would be unacceptable. Just 43% called that acceptable. A majority of Americans are amenable to a much smaller 10,000-troop increase, but a majority of women don't support even that.

With support so fluid, "the country is looking to be led," Mr. Hart said. Mr. Obama "has the ability to both shape attitudes and shape policy," he added.

The economy is where real signs of stress are showing. The recent recovery of the stock market has done little to temper the pessimism: 64% said the rise of the Dow Jones Industrial Average didn't have much impact on their views of the economy; 32% said it was an important indication of economic improvement. Just 42% said the economy will get better in the next 12 months, down from 47% in September. In contrast, 22% said things would get worse, up from 20%, and 33% said the economy would stay in the same condition, up from 30%.

That pessimism has fed into what Mr. Hart called "total disgust" with Washington. Just 23% said they trust Washington to do what is right most of the time or just about always, a level not seen since 1997, 1995 and before that 1982, the last time unemployment reached the current level.

That, coupled with the surging "wrong-track" number, should be a red flag to Democrats a year after their 2008 electoral sweep, Mr. McInturff said. But with the economy coloring attitudes across the board, there is time for the party to recover.

"This rupture with Washington is magnified because of the scope of economic concerns," he said. "When things are OK, people say, 'Oh, that's just Washington.' When things are bad, they look to Washington for help and ask, 'Can these guys help me?'"

Indeed, for all the conservative clamor over Mr. Obama's actions on the economy, 63% of respondents said the government has either done the right amount of intervention or needs to do more. Among loosely aligned voters in the middle of the electorate, a clear plurality, 42%, said government has done too little to fix the economy.

A Center-Right Country Again?

While Conservative pundits (for instance, Bill Kristol) trumpet the top line number from a new Gallup poll indicating a slight increase in the number of Americans willing to label themselves conservative (from 37% to 40%) I find labels to be too subjective and of limited predictive use. More interesting were Gallup's findings on specific issues:

In addition to the increase in conservatism on this general ideology measure, Gallup finds higher percentages of Americans expressing conservative views on several specific issues in 2009 than in 2008.

• Perceptions that there is too much government regulation of business and industry jumped from 38% in September 2008 to 45% in September 2009.
• The percentage of Americans saying they would like to see labor unions have less influence in the country rose from 32% in August 2008 to a record-high 42% in August 2009.
• Public support for keeping the laws governing the sale of firearms the same or making them less strict rose from 49% in October 2008 to 55% in October 2009, also a record high. (The percentage saying the laws should become more strict -- the traditionally liberal position -- fell from 49% to 44%.)
• The percentage of Americans favoring a decrease in immigration rose from 39% in June/July 2008 to 50% in July 2009.
• The propensity to want the government to "promote traditional values" -- as opposed to "not favor any particular set of values" -- rose from 48% in 2008 to 53% in 2009. Current support for promoting traditional values is the highest seen in five years.
• The percentage of Americans who consider themselves "pro-life" on abortion rose from 44% in May 2008 to 51% in May 2009, and remained at a slightly elevated 47% in July 2009.
• Americans' belief that the global warming problem is "exaggerated" in the news rose from 35% in March 2008 to 41% in March 2009.

Gallup has not recorded heightened conservatism on all major social and political views held by Americans. For instance, attitudes on the death penalty, gay marriage, the Iraq war, and Afghanistan have stayed about the same since 2008. However, there are no major examples of U.S. public opinion becoming more liberal in the past year. (Gallup's annual trends on healthcare will be updated in November, so those attitudes are not included in this review.)

The conservative shifts discussed here result as much from changes in political independents' views as from changes in Republicans' views. Democrats' views, by contrast, have generally changed only slightly -- either to the conservative or liberal side -- with two exceptions: Gallup finds greater movement in Democrats' views of abortion, which have become more liberal, and their views of labor unions, which have become more conservative ...

Conservatism is most prevalent among Republicans. However, the overall increase in this ideological stance since 2008 comes largely from political independents, among whom 35% say they are conservatives thus far in 2009 -- compared with 29% last year. Independents have also become more conservative on a number of specific policy issues, including government and union power, the role of government relative to promoting values, gun laws, immigration, global warming, and abortion. Republicans, most of whom considered themselves ideologically conservative in 2008, have also grown more conservative on several of these issues this year, while less change is seen among Democrats.

All of this has potentially important implications at the ballot box, particularly for the 2010 midterm elections. The question is whether increased conservatism, particularly among independents, will translate into heightened support for Republican candidates. Right now, it appears it may. Although Gallup polling continues to show the Democratic Party leading the Republican Party in Americans' party identification, that lead has been narrowing since the beginning of the year and now stands at six points, the smallest since 2005. According to Gallup Managing Editor Jeff Jones, "the Democratic-Republican gap is narrowing because more independents now say they lean to the Republican Party." That trend aligns with the recent changes in how independents perceive their own ideology and where they stand on some key issues.

57% Of Americans Support Public Option; 76% If Run By States

From the Wash Post (poll data):

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that support for a government-run health-care plan to compete with private insurers has rebounded from its summertime lows and wins clear majority support from the public.

Americans remain sharply divided about the overall packages moving closer to votes in Congress and President Obama's leadership on the issue, reflecting the partisan battle that has raged for months over the administration's top legislative priority. But sizable majorities back two key and controversial provisions: both the so-called public option and a new mandate that would require all Americans to carry health insurance.

Independents and senior citizens, two groups crucial to the debate, have warmed to the idea of a public option, and are particularly supportive if it would be administered by the states and limited to those without access to affordable private coverage.

But in a sign of the fragile coalition politics that influence the negotiations in Congress, Obama's approval ratings on health-care reform are slipping among his fellow Democrats even as they are solidifying among independents and seniors. Among Democrats, strong approval of his handling of the issue has dropped 15 percentage points since mid-September.

These numbers underscore the challenges ahead for the president and Democratic leaders in Congress as they attempt to maintain support among liberals and moderates in their own party while continuing to win over at least a few Republican lawmakers.

Overall, 45 percent of Americans favor the broad outlines of the proposals now moving in Congress, while 48 percent are opposed, about the same division that existed in August, at the height of angry town hall meetings over health-care reform. Seven in 10 Democrats back the plan, while almost nine in 10 Republicans oppose it. Independents divide 52 percent against, 42 percent in favor of the legislation.

There are also deep splits in the new poll over whether the proposed changes would go too far or not far enough in expanding coverage and controlling costs. Twice as many see the plan as leaning toward too much government involvement, but since last month there has been a nine-point increase in the number who say government should be more involved.

On the issue that has been perhaps the most pronounced flash point in the national debate, 57 percent of all Americans now favor a public insurance option, while 40 percent oppose it. Support has risen since mid-August, when a bare majority, 52 percent, said they favored it. (In a June Post-ABC poll, support was 62 percent.)

If a public plan were run by the states and available only to those who lack affordable private options, support for it jumps to 76 percent. Under those circumstances, even a majority of Republicans, 56 percent, would be in favor of it, about double their level of support without such a limitation.

Fifty-six percent of those polled back a provision mandating that all Americans buy insurance, either through their employers or on their own or through Medicare or Medicaid. That number rises to 71 percent if the government were to provide subsidies for many lower-income Americans to help them buy coverage. With those qualifiers, a majority of Republicans say they support the mandate.

Faced with a basic choice that soon may confront the administration and Democratic congressional leaders, a slim majority of Americans, 51 percent, would prefer a plan that included some form of government insurance for people who cannot get affordable private coverage even if it had no GOP support in Congress. Thirty-seven percent would rather have a bipartisan plan that did not feature a public option. Republicans and Democrats are on opposite sides of this question, while independents prefer a bill that includes a public option but does not have Republican support, by 52 percent to 35 percent.

But if there is clear majority support for the public option and the mandate, there is broad opposition to one of the major mechanisms proposed to pay for the bill. The Senate Finance Committee suggested taxing the most costly private insurance plans to help offset the costs of extending coverage to millions more people. Sixty-one percent oppose the idea, while 35 percent favor it.

Nearly seven in 10 say they think that any health-care measure would increase the federal budget deficit, a possible concern for Obama. But nearly half of those who see the legislation as growing the deficit also say the increase would be "worth it." 

GOP Continues Its Downward Slide: Generic Dem Beats Generic Repub 51% to 39%

An interesting political tidbit from the new Wash Post poll (see their health care results indicating 3/4 of Americans support some form of a Public Option):

57 percent approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president and 40 percent disapprove. While those numbers have moved only marginally over the past few months, here, too, are fresh signs of restiveness among the party faithful: "Strong approval" among liberal Democrats is down 16 percentage points over the past month.

On the economy, 50 percent approve of Obama's efforts, while 48 percent disapprove.

The president receives better marks from all Americans for his handling of international affairs and his performance as commander in chief (57 percent approval on each). Slim majorities also approve of how he is dealing the situation with Iran and his winning of the Nobel Peace Prize. A majority disapprove of his work on the federal budget deficit.

Despite those mixed reviews on domestic priorities, Obama continues to hold a big political advantage over Republicans.

Poll respondents are evenly divided when asked whether they have confidence in Obama to make the right decisions for the country's future, but just 19 percent express confidence in the Republicans in Congress to do so. Even among Republicans, only 40 percent express confidence in the GOP congressional leadership to make good choices.

Only 20 percent of adults identify themselves as Republicans, little changed in recent months, but still the lowest single number in Post-ABC polls since 1983. Political independents continue to make up the largest group, at 42 percent of respondents; 33 percent call themselves Democrats.

The wide gap in partisan leanings and the lack of confidence in the GOP carries into early assessments of the November 2010 midterm elections: Fifty-one percent say they would back the Democratic candidate in their congressional district if the elections were held now, while 39 percent would vote for the Republican. Independents split 45 percent for the Democrat, 41 percent for the Republican.

Poll:Support for Legalizing Marijuana Reaches New High Of 44%

On the day that the Feds announce they Won’t Prosecute In States That Allow Medical Marijuana, there's this new poll from Gallup:

Gallup's October Crime poll finds 44% of Americans in favor of making marijuana legal and 54% opposed. U.S. public support for legalizing marijuana was fixed in the 25% range from the late 1970s to the mid-1990s, but acceptance jumped to 31% in 2000 and has continued to grow throughout this decade.

Public opinion is virtually the same on a question that relates to a public policy debate brewing in California -- whether marijuana should be legalized and taxed as a way of raising revenue for state governments. Just over 4 in 10 Americans (42%) say they would favor this in their own state; 56% are opposed. Support is markedly higher among residents of the West -- where an outright majority favor the proposal -- than in the South and Midwest. The views of Eastern residents fall about in the middle.

The new findings come as the U.S. Justice Department has reportedly decided to loosen its enforcement of federal anti-marijuana laws by not pursuing individuals who buy or sell small amounts of the drug in conformity with their own states' medical marijuana laws. This seems likely to meet with U.S. public approval, as previous Gallup polling has found Americans generally sympathetic to legalizing marijuana for medical purposes. In 2003, 75% of Americans favored allowing doctors to legally prescribe marijuana to patients in order to reduce pain and suffering.

Basic Support for Legalization Highest Among Liberals

The highest level of support for decriminalizing the use of marijuana today is seen with self-described liberals, among whom 78% are in favor. In contrast, 72% of conservatives are opposed. Moderates are about evenly divided on whether the use of marijuana should be legal, although they tilt against it (51% vs. 46%).

Somewhat milder differences are seen according to political party, mainly because of the tempered support of Democrats relative to that of liberals. However, a solid 70% of Republicans -- similar to the rate seen among conservatives -- are opposed.

Gallup also finds a generational rift on the issue, as 50% of those under 50 and 45% of those 50 to 64 say it should be legal, compared with 28% of seniors.

Basic Support Swells Among Certain Groups

Most of the expansion in support for legalizing marijuana since Gallup last measured this in 2005 is seen among women, younger Americans, Democrats, moderates, and liberals. By comparison, there has been little change in the views of men, seniors, Republicans, independents, and conservatives. Regionally, support has grown the most in the West and Midwest.

Bottom Line

Public mores on legalization of marijuana have been changing this decade, and are now at their most tolerant in at least 40 years. If public support were to continue growing at a rate of 1% to 2% per year, as it has since 2000, the majority of Americans could favor legalization of the drug in as little as four years.

Americans are no more -- and no less -- in favor of legalizing marijuana when the issue is framed as a revenue-enhancement tool for state governments. Regardless of how the question is asked, 53% of Americans living in the West -- encompassing California, where the issue could be on the ballot in 2010 -- support legalization.

Only 44% Support Stricter Gun Control Laws, A Record Low

A depressing, new Gallup poll:

 

Sorry Conservatives, Barack Obama Is Good for America's Reputation

From Michael Scherer:

One of the steady themes conservative bloggers and pundits like to return to is the argument that President Obama likes talking smack about America, or at least that he feels like he has to apologize for his homeland whenever he travels overseas. As columnist Charles Krauthammer asked on Fox News after Obama's appearance before the United Nations, "What do our allies think when they hear that and when they hear . . . Obama denigrating his own country and presenting himself as the man who will redeem America from its wickedness?"

Well, that's one question to ask. But the answer, at least as told through public opinion polls, might come as a surprise to Krauthammer. Whatever Obama is doing does seem, after all, to be having an effect. This morning, the White House circulated an independent poll showing that global admiration for the United States brand has risen considerably in the last year. "What's really remarkable is that in all my years studying national reputation, I have never seen any country experience such a dramatic change in its standing as we see for the United States in 2009," explains Simon Anholt, the founder of the Nation Brands Index, which measures the global image of 50 countries.

Last year, the United States ranked seventh, behind Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan and--damn you Berlusconi!--Italy. This year the U.S. ranked first. Perhaps a little apology/self-reflection/change-in-leadership/outreach goes a long way.

The survey itself included 20,000 respondents from 20 countries, and was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media. As the press release explains:

The NBI is based on a global survey in which people from across 20 major developed and developing countries are asked to rate each nation in six categories: Exports, Governance, Culture, People, Tourism and Immigration/Investment. The NBI ranking is based on the average of these six scores ...

This improved perception of the U.S. is not only in the area of Governance, there are improved perceptions for People, Culture and even Tourism of the United States," adds Xiaoyan Zhao, Senior Vice President and director of the NBI study at GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media. "While most nations' reputation does not undergo major change from year to year, the U.S. has clearly bucked the trend."

The Top Ten rankings, according to the survey, are now:
1. United States 2. France 3. Germany 4. United Kingdom   5. Japan	6. Italy 7. Canada 8. Switzerland 9. Australia 10. Spain and Sweden (tie)

Poll: Obama's Job Approval Rises

From the AP:

President Barack Obama's approval ratings are starting to rise after declining ever since his inauguration, new poll figures show as the country's mood begins to brighten. But concerns about the economy, health care and war persist, and support for the war in Afghanistan is falling.

An Associated Press-GfK poll says 56 percent of those surveyed in the past week approve of Obama's job performance, up from 50 percent in September. It's the first time since he took office in January that his rating has gone up.

People also feel better about his handling of the economy and his proposed health care overhaul. But not about the war.

Support for the war in Afghanistan has declined, the poll said Tuesday. And approval of Obama's handling of it is holding steady — in contrast to his gains in other areas — as he considers a big troop increase there. Poll respondents narrowly oppose the increase.

Overall, 39 percent said they disapproved of Obama's performance in office, down from 49 percent last month.

While a majority of those surveyed remain pessimistic about the direction of the country, that number has begun to improve, too. The poll found 41 percent now believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction, compared with 37 percent in September.

But a large majority of respondents said they remain very concerned about most of the major issues facing the country. The economy was the biggest concern, with 88 percent saying they consider it extremely or very important, followed by unemployment, health care, terrorism, the budget deficit, taxes and the war in Afghanistan.

The increase in Obama's job approval rating was driven by a more positive view of his handling of nearly all of those issues.

Fifty percent of those surveyed said they approved of the president's handling of the economy, up from 44 percent in September. And 48 percent said they approved of his handling of health care, up six points and about equal to the 47 percent who said they disapproved. Obama has made health care the signature domestic issue of his presidency ...

The only measure that remained unchanged from September was Obama's handling of the war in Afghanistan. Forty-six percent said they approved of his handling of the conflict, while 41 percent disapproved.

Indeed, the poll found a drop in overall support for the 8-year-old war. Forty percent said they favored it, down four points from July, while 57 percent said they were opposed. Some 46 percent favor sending more U.S. troops there, while 50 percent oppose a troop increase, a major decision Obama is weighing ...

To be sure, the poll found persistent and deep partisan divisions over Obama. While 88 percent of Democrats said they approved of his performance in office, just 18 percent of Republicans approved. But that GOP figure was up six points since September, when only 12 percent of Republicans said they approved.

Obama's job approval has also gone up among independents. Fifty-three percent said they approved of the president's job performance, a nine point increase since September. Even more strikingly, the percentage of independents who said they disapproved plunged 16 points, from 53 percent last month to 37 percent now.

Opposition To Health Care Legislation Drops Modestly

From Gallup:

Americans' views on healthcare legislation have shifted modestly over the past three weeks, with a slight plurality (40%) now supporting the passage of a new healthcare bill, and with fewer (36%) saying they oppose a new bill. When the leanings of those without an opinion are taken into account, 51% of Americans favor or lean toward favoring a bill, while 41% oppose it or lean toward opposition -- a more sizeable gap in favor than three weeks ago.

 

In terms of Americans' initial preference for passing healthcare legislation (that is prior to those without an opinion being asked which way they lean), their views since August have changed very little from one poll to the next. However, the cumulative effect has been a slight increase in support for the bill over the past two months (from 35% to 40%) and a corresponding decline in those holding no opinion.

That a quarter of Americans remain unsure may reflect the confusion created by the number of healthcare reform bills the House and Senate are still debating -- with different provisions in each and still no clarity about whether the final bill will include a "public option."

The greater tilt in favor of a healthcare bill today is not because of increased support for it in recent weeks; rather, opposition has lessened, while a higher percentage of Americans express no opinion or leaning on healthcare reform.

Why The Finance Committee Members Voted The Way They Did: It's In The Polls

Democracy at work or unprincipled politicians unwilling to take a stand for what is right? An analysis from Behind The Numbers that my-way-or-the-highway Public Option advocates aren't going to like:

The 13 senators who yesterday voted against both government-sponsored health insurance plans represent populations whose support for health reform improves significantly when the plan does not include just such an option.

Among those living in states represented by the 13* Senate Finance Committee members opposing both amendments, a majority in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll gave a thumbs down to the health reform proposals being developed by the Congress and Obama administration. But when asked about a package that excluded a public option, the results flipped and most stood in favor of the reform effort.

The opposite was true among those living in states represented by the 8** members of the committee who voted for both amendments, as support in those states held steady regardless of the inclusion of a public option.

Just over half (51 percent) in states represented by a senator who opposed the two amendments said the proposals as they understood them would create too much government involvement in health care, about four in 10 (41 percent) said it would be the right amount and fewer than one in 10 (7 percent) said it was not enough government action. Among those whose senator backed both amendments, 48 percent considered it the right amount, 16 percent said it wasn't enough government action and 34 percent felt it went too far.

The politics of the vote are also notably different between the two sets of constituencies. Majorities in both (53 percent among opposing states, 55 percent among supporting) said a congressional candidate's views on the reform effort would not impact their vote next November, but among those who said the vote would be crucial, the divide is clear. Among those in states represented by opponents of the amendments, 28 percent said support for reform would make them less apt to back a candidate while just 18 percent in the supporting set of states said the same.

Among both sets of constituencies, about seven in 10 said Democrats in Congress should modify their bill to win some GOP support.

*Arkansas, Arizona, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Texas, Utah and Wyoming

**Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Washington and West Virginia

Winning Hearts & Minds: Muslim Public Opinion Turns Against Terrorism

From the NY Times:

... a surprising and perhaps heartening long-term trend: Many students of terrorism believe that in important ways, Al Qaeda and its ideology of global jihad are in a pronounced decline — with its central leadership thrown off balance as operatives are increasingly picked off by missiles and manhunts and, more important, with its tactics discredited in public opinion across the Muslim world.

“Al Qaeda is losing its moral argument about the killing of innocent civilians,” said Emile A. Nakhleh, who headed the Central Intelligence Agency’s strategic analysis program on political Islam until 2006. “They’re finding it harder to recruit. They’re finding it harder to raise money.”

Marc Sageman, a former C.I.A. officer and forensic psychiatrist, counted 10 serious plots with Western targets, successful and unsuccessful, that could be linked to Al Qaeda or its allies in 2004, a peak he believes was motivated by the American-led invasion of Iraq the year before. In 2008, he said, there were just three.

Dr. Sageman has been in the forefront of those who argue that the centrally led Al Qaeda responsible for the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks is giving way to a generation of dispersed, aspiring terrorists linked largely by the Internet — who still pose a danger, but of a lesser degree.

“I said two years ago it was a diminishing problem, and everything I’ve seen since then has confirmed it,” Dr. Sageman said of what counterterrorism specialists call Al Qaeda Central.

Dr. Sageman is not alone in that assessment. Audrey Kurth Cronin, a professor at the National War College in Washington, cites the arcs of previous violent extremist groups, from the Russian People’s Will to the Irish Republican Army, that she studied for her new book, “How Terrorism Ends.”

“I think Al Qaeda is in the process of imploding,” she said. “This is not necessarily the end. But the trends are in a good direction.”

Yet the question of how much comfort to take from such an assessment, and whether it should change American counterterrorism policy, remain wide open ... Even counterterrorism officials who agree that Al Qaeda is on the wane, for example, say the organization might well regroup if left unmolested in a lawless region in Pakistan, Afghanistan or Somalia. Moreover, they point out that even a lone terrorist with modest skills can produce mass carnage. Six years before 9/11, with no aid from a sophisticated network, Timothy McVeigh used a simple fertilizer bomb in Oklahoma City to kill 168 people. And the 2001 calamity was the work of, at most, a few dozen plotters.

Nevertheless, some government officials do take quiet, if wary, satisfaction in two developments that they say underlie the broad belief that Al Qaeda is on a downhill slope. One is the success of military Special Operations units, the C.I.A. and allies in killing prominent terrorists.

Three days apart in mid-September, American special forces in Somalia firing from helicopters killed Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, a leader of a Somalian organization, Al Shabab, which is allied with Al Qaeda, and the police in Indonesia killed the most-wanted terrorist in Southeast Asia, Noordin Muhammad Top, in an assault on a house in Java.

In Pakistan, missile strikes from C.I.A. drone aircraft have taken a steady toll on Al Qaeda and its Taliban allies since the Bush administration accelerated these attacks last year, a policy reinforced by President Obama. A count of such strikes, compiled by the Center for American Progress in Washington, found a handful in 2006 and 2007, rising rapidly to 36 in 2008, and another 36 so far in 2009, nearly all in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

In addition to thinning the ranks of potential plotters, the constant threat of attack from the air makes it far harder for terrorists to move, communicate, and plan, counterterrorism officials say. And while the officials say they worry about a public backlash in response to the civilians killed during the air attacks, those officials also say the strikes may be frightening away potential recruits for terrorism.

The second trend is older and probably more critical. The celebration in many Muslim countries that followed the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks has given way to broad disillusionment with mass killing and the ideology behind it, according to a number of polls.

Between 2002 and 2009, the view that suicide bombings are “often or sometimes justified” has declined, according to the Pew Global Attitudes Project, from 43 percent to 12 percent in Jordan; from 26 percent to 13 percent in Indonesia; and from 33 percent to 5 percent in Pakistan (excluding some sparsely populated, embattled areas). Positive ratings for Osama bin Laden have fallen by half or more in most of the countries Pew polled.

Peter Mandaville, a professor of government and Islamic studies at George Mason University, says a series of public recantations” by prominent Islamist scholars and militants in recent years have had an effect. But the biggest catalyst has been bombings close to home.

While 65% Of Americans Favor A Public Option For All, Congress Is Making It Off Limits To Vast Majority

From Prescriptions:

The latest New York Times/CBS News Poll found solid support for a government-run insurance plan, or so-called public option, that would compete with private insurers. Other surveys have found similar results.

But what members of the public seem to prefer and what Congress plans to give them may not be the same thing.

For example, the Times/CBS poll asked: Would you favor or oppose the government offering everyone a government-administered health insurance plan — something like the Medicare coverage that people 65 and older get — that would compete with private insurance plans? The poll question was phrased generally so that it could be asked in repeated surveys over time regardless of any specific legislative proposal.

With the question asked that way, most respondents supported the idea, with 65 percent in favor, 26 percent opposed and 9 percent offering no position.

But in Congress, none of the legislative proposals that include the public option would make it available to everyone. In fact, the public option, at least at the outset, would not be an option for most Americans, particularly those who already have health insurance.

The public, in other words, may have more appetite for the public option than many in Congress do.

Versions of the legislation that have advanced in three different House committees and in the Senate health committee call for a government-run insurance plan to be offered through a new marketplace, or exchange, where individuals who currently do not have insurance could buy coverage. People who want to sign up would pay premiums for the government-run plan, just as they would pay for competing private plans offered in the exchange.

About 160 million Americans now have employer-sponsored health insurance. And the majority of them would not be eligible to purchase coverage through the exchange, unless their employer-provided insurance failed to meet certain conditions, by being too expensive, for instance.

Some small businesses would be allowed to offer coverage through the government marketplaces, potentially giving workers for those businesses access to a public option.

And some versions of the legislation allow for the possibility of opening the exchanges to larger employers in years ahead, potentially expanding access to a public option even further.

A government-run insurance plan, as described in the Times/CBS poll — like Medicare but eligible to every American under age 65 — would be more comparable to the state-run health systems in countries like Canada, England and Spain, typically known as single-payer systems. Single-payer systems, however, do not involve competition between the government and private insurance, although in some cases extra private insurance can supplement a government plan.

President Obama has rejected calls from some liberals to adopt a single-payer system in the United States, suggesting that it would be as extreme an approach as removing the government from any role in providing health insurance and leaving people to find medical coverage on their own.

As my colleague Robert Pear points out, President Obama, in an address to a joint session of Congress on Sept. 9, said the government plan “would only be an option for those who don’t have insurance.” And “based on Congressional Budget Office estimates,” he said, “we believe that less than 5 percent of Americans would sign up.”

The budget office estimates that under the House bill, enrollment in the public plan would total 11 million or 12 million, counting people who buy insurance on their own (9 million to 10 million) and those with employer-sponsored coverage (2 million).

Poles & Czechs Support Obama Missile Decision; American Conservatives Misread Situation

From conservative Daniel Larson:

Via Andrew, Ben Smith brings a new Polish poll on the missile shield to our attention. By a 48-31% margin, Polish respondents say that Obama’s decision was good for Poland. This is in line with what I have been saying about Polish and Czech public opinion regarding the missile defense proposal for quite some time. The Wall Street Journal’s latest news article this morning was blaring headlines from tabloids in Poland and the Czech Republic as if these responses were representative of the population as a whole. Evidently they are not at all representative. It’s as if foreign media picked up the latest stories from Newsmax and treated them as proof of what most Americans believed. One of the problems the American right seems to be having in understanding the Polish and Czech reactions is that they are taking their cues from the most nationalist segments of the population, and as a result they are given very misleading impressions of how most Poles and Czechs view things. If you believe that Vaclav Havel speaks for his people on this matter, his outrage over the cancellation would mean something, but he doesn’t speak for them, just as he did not speak for them when he backed the invasion of Iraq. The same is true of Kaczynski and the Poles.

How is it that most conservatives can bristle at American elites who ignore them and their interests and not see that most “pro-Western” or “pro-American” governments are staffed with people who are just as out of touch with their own nations on many issues? How do they not see that the sort of people from the coasts they find so unappealing and unlike them are very much like the Europeans who align themselves so slavishly with Washington? Why would anyone assume that such people represent the broad majority of their countrymen when it comes to foreign policy?

Gay Marriage Fading As Social Conservative's Focal Point

It's not just Iowa voters who are losing interest in gay marriage as a wedge issue. A surprising poll result from 538.com:

It's Mike Huckabee's win in the presidential straw poll at this past week's Value Voters' summit that's drawing the headlines. But this is every bit as interesting:

Abortion ranked first among issues of concern to straw-poll voters, getting 41 percent of the vote, with protection of religious liberty second with 18 percent.

Opposition to same-sex marriage was third at 7 percent.

Emphasis is mine. These are not the tea-partiers, who have a libertarian bent. This is a forum, rather, sponsored by the Family Research Council, an organization which continues to insist that homosexuality is curable and to link it to pedophilia. But the actual attendees at the forum -- religious conservative activists from around the country -- just don't seem to be all that riled up about the prospect of two men getting married.

This is not to suggest that these voters have become pro-gay marriage. If any of them was spotted in leather chaps at Remington's after the event -- it was not, I assure you, to show solidarity for their gay brothers and sisters. But the last time this poll was conducted, in October 2007, gay marriage was the top choice of 20 percent of the attendees. That's quite a decline, particularly given that gay marriage has been more in the news than abortion for the past couple of years.

Public opinion is moving toward acceptance of gay marriage. But it is doing so very slowly, at a rate of perhaps a point or two per year, and has at least a few years to go before it is the majority opinion. In the near term, the more relevant dimension may be 'passion', or depth of feeling. It used to be that the conservatives were ahead on passion -- they were strongly opposed to gay marriage, whereas liberals were, at best, lukewarmly in favor of it. Increasingly, that dynamic seems to be reversing.

Iowa Poll: Iowans Evenly Divided On Gay Marriage Ban. 92% Say Gay Marriage Hasn't Changed Anything In Their Lives.

From the Des Moines Register (also see the surprising poll results from the social conservative's recent Value Voters summit):

Iowans are almost evenly divided about whether they would vote for or against a constitutional amendment to end marriage for same-sex couples, according to The Des Moines Register's new Iowa Poll. Forty-one percent say they would vote for a ban, and 40 percent say they would vote to continue gay marriage. The rest either would not vote or say they are not sure.

The most intensity about the issue shows up among opponents. The percentage of Iowans who say they strongly oppose gay marriage (35 percent) is nearly double the percentage who say they strongly favor it (18 percent).

The overwhelming majority of Iowans - 92 percent - say gay marriage has brought no real change to their lives. Sixty-three percent say candidates' stands on other issues will be more important in making their decisions in the 2010 elections.

This is the first Iowa Poll to examine opinions on the issue since the Iowa Supreme Court in April overturned the state's statutory ban on same-sex marriage. The newspaper's poll of 803 Iowans ages 18 and older was conducted Sept. 14 to 16 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The poll has a possible margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll shows that 26 percent of Iowans favor April's unanimous court ruling legalizing same-sex marriage, 43 percent oppose it and 31 percent don't care much or are not sure.

Despite the 43 percent opposition to the ruling, 61 percent of Iowans say other issues will influence their decision on whether to vote to retain Iowa Supreme Court justices in the 2010 elections.

"It's really none of my business what other people do in their lives," said Curt Goodell, 38, a Johnston resident.

He identifies himself as a Republican but said he worries his party will try to make marriage a key issue in coming elections. "I don't have any judgment toward people who want to get married: gays, straight or whatever," Goodell said.

John Smith, 50, a Republican from Clarinda, opposes gay marriage because of religious reasons, but he supports civil unions.

"I'm going to nursing school now, and part of the nursing code is to be nonjudgmental," Smith said. "In hospitals, if a same-sex partner couldn't visit or get information about their partner's health? I just think that's wrong."

Immediately after the April ruling, Republicans in the Iowa Senate and House lobbied for a vote to amend the Iowa Constitution to prohibit same-sex marriage. Democratic leaders blocked those attempts. The court decision turned national attention to Iowa, the first Midwestern state to make same-sex marriage legal.

The issue has taken on prominence in the early stages of the 2010 race for governor, as potential Republican candidates jockey for favor with primary voters. Also on the 2010 ballot are all 100 Iowa House seats, 25 of the 50 Senate seats and the positions of state treasurer, auditor, secretary of state and attorney general.

Few poll respondents who described themselves as Republicans say the court decision is the single most important issue in the 2010 elections. But more than a third of Republicans say it is among several important issues, while only about a quarter of Democrats put it in that category.

Former state Republican Chairman Mike Mahaffey said the poll shows that, as the party searches for a winning message, the economy trumps marriage among voters.

"I think all of the candidates are going to state that they believe the people ought to be given the right to vote on a constitutional amendment. That's a reasonable approach," Mahaffey said. "I also think when it comes down to it, the overriding issues are going to be what can we do to create jobs and put ourselves in a better position fiscally."

Celinda Lake, a national Democratic pollster, has polled on the issue of gay marriage in Iowa since 2004. She said the minority of Iowans who consider the court decision a top ballot-box issue is consistent with her research.

"What we found is Iowa has always had fewer single-issue voters on gay marriage than a lot of other states even in the Midwest," Lake said. "Now what we're seeing nationwide, the issue has really receded. So, people are not particularly focused on it as a voting issue."

National advocacy groups for and against the ruling have spent tens of thousands of dollars campaigning in Iowa. The Register's poll could perhaps give hope to both sides, since it indicates a close contest if a vote were held now.

"Wherever this has been put on the ballot, there's been a pretty spirited education campaign on both sides," said Chuck Hurley, a former Republican legislator and now president of the Iowa Family Policy Center, a group opposing gay marriage.

David Redlawsk, a former political science professor at the University of Iowa, took note of the finding that almost all Iowans say the ruling has had no impact upon their lives.

"Given how hard it is to amend the constitution, by the time a vote will happen, this will be the new normal," Redlawsk said. "There's a core that oppose it and always will, but, for most people, they're ready to move on."

New Polls On Obama, Bipartisanship & Congress

Gallup on Obama's job approval:

Of the seven specific issue approval ratings measured in a Sept. 11-13 USA Today/Gallup poll, President Obama gets his highest rating (56%) on his handling of Iraq, and his lowest (38%) on the federal deficit. Obama's approval ratings on handling the economy and healthcare, at 46% and 43%, respectively, are little changed over the past two months.

Gallup on Congressional approval:

New USA Today/Gallup approval ratings of the two major parties in Congress show the Democrats faring slightly better than the Republicans, in line with the pattern in recent years. Thirty-six percent of Americans interviewed Sept. 11-13 approve of how the Democrats in Congress are doing their job; 27% approve of the Republicans. However, both parties' ratings are down significantly from earlier this year, returning them to the record-low levels seen in 2007 and 2008.

The low point for the Democrats in Congress came in December 2007, when 30% approved; a low of 25% approved of the Republicans in December 2008 (with the Democrats' ratings marginally improved from 2007). The ratings surged in February of this year (to 47% for the Democrats and 36% for the Republicans) but declined in March and have now declined further.

Republicans Discouraged With Party's Performance

A key reason for congressional Republicans' depressed ratings in recent months is that rank-and-file Republicans' support for their own party in Congress has descended to unprecedented depths.

Although overall approval of the Republicans in Congress is about the same today as it was in December 2008, support among Republicans has dropped from 52% to 39%. At the same time, approval among Democrats has increased from 9% to 20%, helping to keep the overall rating from setting a new low. Remarkably, an outright majority of Republicans today (58%) say they disapprove of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing.

Gallup on bipartisanship:

President Barack Obama may have failed to achieve much bipartisan agreement on his major policies since he took office, but Americans give him credit for trying. Sixty percent say Obama has made a sincere effort to work with Republicans, down from prior measurements but still the majority view.

73% Of Doctors Support Public Option

From NPR (listen to story, read poll):

Among all the players in the health care debate, doctors may be the least understood about where they stand on some of the key issues around changing the health care system. Now, a new survey finds some surprising results: A large majority of doctors say there should be a public option.

When polled, "nearly three-quarters of physicians supported some form of a public option, either alone or in combination with private insurance options," says Dr. Salomeh Keyhani. She and Dr. Alex Federman, both internists and researchers at Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York, conducted a random survey, by mail and by phone, of 2,130 doctors. They surveyed them from June right up to early September.

Most doctors — 63 percent — say they favor giving patients a choice that would include both public and private insurance. That's the position of President Obama and of many congressional Democrats. In addition, another 10 percent of doctors say they favor a public option only; they'd like to see a single-payer health care system. Together, the two groups add up to 73 percent.

When the American public is polled, anywhere from 50 to 70 percent favor a public option. So that means that when compared to their patients, doctors are bigger supporters of a public option.

Doctors' Support For Public Option 'Broad And Widespread'

The researchers say they found strong support for a public option among all categories of doctors. "We even saw that support being the same whether physicians lived in rural areas or metropolitan areas," says Federman.

"Whether they lived in southern regions of the United States or traditionally liberal parts of the country," says Keyhani, "we found that physicians, regardless — whether they were salaried or they were practice owners, regardless of whether they were specialists or primary care providers, regardless of where they lived — the support for the public option was broad and widespread."

Keyhani says doctors already have experience with government-run health care, with Medicare. And she says the survey shows that, overall, they like it. "We've heard a lot about how the government is standing in between patients and their physician," Keyhani says. "And what we can see is that physicians support Medicare. So I think physicians have sort of signaled that a public option that's similar in design to Medicare would be a good way of ensuring patients get the care that they need."

The survey was published online Monday by the New England Journal of Medicine. It was funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, a health care research organization that favors health reform.

The survey even found widespread support for a public option among doctors who are members of the American Medical Association, a group that's opposed to it. The AMA fears a public option eventually could lead to government putting more limits on doctors' fees.

"The American Medical Association has traditionally been probably the loudest voice for physicians across the United States," says Federman. "And part of our reason for doing this research was really to get at the real voice of physicians as opposed to the voice of one physician organization."...

Politicians in Washington turn to the AMA for support and guidance, even though fewer than a third of practicing doctors belong to the lobbying group.

The AMA's own position on a health overhaul has, at times, been hard to pinpoint. In July, it praised the bill that came out of the House of Representatives. That bill included a public option. But the AMA made it clear that what it really liked was that it eliminated cuts in doctors' fees from Medicare.

Support For Public Option Jumps From 55% to 76% When Told It's Limited To Those Who Can't Get Private Insurance

This new poll from the Wash Post (results) has many interesting details, the most important of which is that Obama and team have to do a much better job educating the public: the public option already is limited to those who can't get private insurance. It seems that if this single fact were better known, it could change the whole debate.

President Obama continues to face significant public resistance to his drive to initiate far-reaching changes to the country's health-care system, with widespread skepticism about central tenets of his plan, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

But after a summer of angry debate and protests, opposition to the effort has eased somewhat, and there appears to be potential for further softening among critics if Congress abandons the idea of a government-sponsored health insurance option, a proposal that has become a flash point in the debate. The gap in passion, which had shown greater intensity among opponents of the plan, has also begun to close, with supporters increasingly energized and more now seeing reform as possible without people being forced to give up their current coverage ...

The poll began on the evening after Obama delivered a speech to a joint session of Congress and concluded on the day tens of thousands of people demonstrated in Washington against the president and his plan. Obama's prime-time address last Wednesday came at the end of a summer in which both he and the effort steadily lost ground in public opinion polls, and it marked his most high-profile attempt to reframe the debate and prod his supporters to pass legislation by the end of the year.

As Congress begins its second week back from August recess, the playing field is virtually level: Americans remain almost deadlocked in their opinion of the Democrats' health-care initiative, with 46 percent in favor of the proposed changes and 48 percent opposed. There is also a clean split on Obama's handling of the issue, with 48 percent approving and the same number disapproving. But since mid-August, the percentage "strongly" behind the president on health care has risen to 32 percent, evening out the intensity gap that has plagued him on the subject.

The public also divides about evenly -- 51 percent in favor, 47 percent against -- on the question of whether people should be required to have health insurance, a central element of the plans under consideration.

But it is the public option that has become the major point of contention, with support for the government creation of an insurance plan that would compete with private insurers stabilizing in the survey after dipping last month. Now, 55 percent say they like the idea, but the notion continues to attract intense objection: If that single provision were removed, opposition to the overall package drops by six percentage points, according to the poll.

Without the public option, 50 percent back the rest of the proposed changes; a still sizable 42 percent are opposed. Independents divide 45-45 on a package without the government-sponsored insurance option, while they are largely negative on the entire set of proposals (40 percent support and 52 percent oppose). Republican opposition also fades 20 points under this scenario.

The decision to back away from the provision might hurt Obama among his base, but not dramatically so, as 88 percent of liberal Democrats support the reform plan as is, 81 percent without the public option.

The politics of the idea would also probably change dramatically depending on its scope: If it were limited to only those unable to get private insurance, support would rise to 76 percent.

The poll also carries a clear warning for both major political parties: Forty-three percent of respondents consider themselves independents, the most ever in a Post-ABC poll, and about a third of them say they do not trust either side to deal with the nation's biggest problems in the years ahead.

More than seven in 10 Americans, including majorities across party lines, say they think Obama and congressional Democrats should adjust the health-care legislation to appeal to some Republican lawmakers. Half credit the Democrats with making a good-faith effort to do so already, while most, 62 percent, say the GOP is not returning the favor.

Nearly half of all Americans, 45 percent, say the reform plan would create too much government involvement in the system, a number on par with polls taken during President Bill Clinton's doomed efforts at big health-care changes in 1993 and 1994. Just over half of independents say the current plan would amount to overreach, significantly more than said so in the early 1990s. About two-thirds say they think the reform plan would increase the federal budget deficit.

"Contempt for Congress is practically an American tradition"

From the NY Times:

Contempt for Congress is practically an American tradition, making the current lackluster standing of the House and Senate about standard despite the passions surrounding the health care fight as well as several missteps by high-profile individuals that help make Congress look bad.

Besides the furor over the Wilson episode, the Senate has had to deal with the case of Senator John Ensign of Nevada who had to quit the Republican leadership after acknowledging a long affair and payments to the family of the woman. And Representative Charles B. Rangel, the New York Democrat who heads the House tax committee, has acknowledged owing back taxes on some earnings and recently revised his financial disclosure statements to add significant assets he had not previously listed. There are other lawmakers under scrutiny as well.

Gallup has been tracking Congressional approval since 1974, and its most recent finding of 31 percent approval is in the neighborhood of the historical average of 35 percent. The most recent CBS News poll finding of 26 percent approval was roughly double the low point registered last fall.

The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press had its approval rating for Congress at a 24-year low late last month (37 percent), but it was not all that far off the beginning of this year or the previous year.

That is not to say that Congress is doing well; it is just doing about as badly as usual.

John R. Hibbing, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, has extensively studied public sentiment about Congress and other political institutions and has come to what some might consider surprising conclusions.

First, Mr. Hibbing said his research suggests that economic conditions do not greatly determine the overall public view of Congress, which is probably good news for legislators given the current struggles. And in another finding, he said the misdeeds of individual lawmakers are typically not dominant factors in determining public perceptions.

“We didn’t see any clear indication that a single scandal, however salient, dramatically drove down the public esteem of the institution,” he said, though legislators might not be comforted by his reasoning. “I think people have come to the judgment they are a bunch of scallywags.”

So what does tend to sully the public image of Congress? “When Congress is in the news a lot, it tends to be less popular,” Mr. Hibbing said.

That is a potential problem for the modern-day Congress on multiple levels. First, with 24-hour cable television coverage and the growth of the Internet, stories are replayed throughout the day accompanied by endless commentary and criticism ...

Second, and perhaps more important, Congress is often in the news when it is trying to get something big done. Moving major legislation is a contentious process, a serious struggle between competing points of view and interests with a lot of sharp elbows, sharp words and even occasional shouts from the floor.

When trying to deal with the type of issues that Congress is now confronting — from health care to economic collapse to global climate change — the going is naturally going to get rough, meaning Congress should not count on seeing its stock rise soon ...

As for Congress over all, Mr. Hibbing suggests it might be the victim of unrealistic public expectations based on an idealized image of lawmakers working harmoniously together to solve the nation’s problems when reality is a lot more gritty.

“We may be setting up politicians and Congress for a fall by giving people a sense this is still a pristine operation,” he said.

Perhaps the civics books need a rewrite.

Does The Latest Poll Prove The Majority Of Seniors Are Selfish And Greedy?

Karen Tumulty digs out more proof that Seniors Are Selfish: They Want To Keep Their Wildly Popular Health Plan To Themselves.

The Great Generational Divide Over Health Care is pretty clear in the latest CNN poll. Sixty percent of younger Americans favor the Obama effort; the exact percentage of older ones oppose it:

It's truly appalling that those over 65 who benefit from a government run insurance program (Medicare) would deny the same to those under 65. Compounding their Scrooge-like hypocrisy is that they also benefit from a government run pension (Social Security). Bah humbug.

Surprise: 67% Of Americans Are Confused About Health Care Reform

A new poll from CBS News highlights the President's opportunity ... if he can effectively clear up the confusion, he can regain the initiative (complete poll):

Most Americans find the health care reforms being discussed in Congress confusing and say President Obama has not clearly explained his plans to overhaul the system, according to a CBS News poll released Tuesday.

Two in three Americans call the health care reforms being debated by lawmakers confusing; only 31 percent said they have a clear understanding of the proposed changes. Sixty-seven percent of those questioned said the reform ideas were confusing.

This evaluation cuts across party lines, with majorities of both Republicans (69 percent) and Democrats (58 percent) saying the current proposals are confusing.

Most Americans (60 percent) say the President has not clearly explained his health care reform plans. While slightly more than half of Democrats think Mr. Obama has clearly explained his plans, majorities of Republicans and independent voters say he has not.

Americans also have increasing doubts as to how well the government can compete with private insurers. Just under half of those questioned said the government would do a worse job providing medical coverage - only 36 percent said it would do better, marking a change since earlier this summer.

There has also been a significant drop in the percentage that says government would be better than insurers at keeping costs down; from 59 percent in June to 47 percent now. Still, more said the government rather than private insurers would do a better job containing costs.

Most Americans have heard or read something about the protestors who attended recent town hall meetings on health care reform. Among those who have heard about them, almost half (49 percent) said the protestors do not reflect the views of most Americans, but 41 percent said they do.

A majority of Republicans (66 percent) said the protestors reflect the opinions of Americans as a whole, while a slightly larger proportion of Democratic participants did not (73 percent). Among those aged 65 and over, 45 percent said the protestors' views were in line with those of most Americans - the highest of any age group.

Obama Approval Rating At 50%: "Third-fastest drop since World War II"

From the LA Times:

President Obama, who won the White House with an electoral college landslide and enjoyed soaring public approval in the weeks after his inauguration, has fallen to a 50% job approval rating in the newest daily tracking of the Gallup Poll released Thursday.

The new low for Obama compares with his peak public job approval rating of 69% after his inauguration in January.

The president's sliding approval ratings in the Gallup and other national polls this summer have paralleled growing unrest about his healthcare plans.

Polls also show that Obama has lost support for his handling of the economy, although his approval ratings for handling foreign affairs remain higher.

The loss of support for the president on domestic issues has made it more difficult for the White House to rally support in Congress for his healthcare initiative, with lawmakers looking at midterm elections a little over a year away.

Should the slide continue, Obama would by no means be the first president to drop below 50% in the Gallup Poll, which has been tracking public approval of presidents since Harry S. Truman.

But Obama has reached his new low more quickly than most of his predecessors did, Gallup said. The percentage of people voicing disapproval for Obama's job performance stands at a near-high of 43%.

Aides to the president said he was not fixated on polling data. Obama entered office with high ratings, White House Deputy Press Secretary Bill Burton said Thursday, but never thought they were "something he should put up on a shelf and admire."

"It's real easy to stay popular in Washington if you don't do anything at all," said Burton, adding that the president doesn't believe in working that way.

Slipping below 50% before November of the first year in office would represent the third-fastest drop since World War II, Gallup reports.

President Ford slipped below 50% in his third month; President Clinton hit the mark in his fourth month. Ford's rating was partly spurred by his unpopular decision to pardon former President Nixon in 1974.

It took President Eisenhower five years to fall below 50%, Gallup said. It took Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush each about three years. It took Presidents Johnson and Nixon more than two years.

It's not an irreversible trend, Gallup said. Clinton and President Reagan, who dropped below majority approval "faster than most other presidents," easily won reelection.

The latest findings of the Gallup Poll come from surveys of about 1,500 adults conducted Tuesday through Thursday, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Poll: Faith in Obama Drops As Reform Fears Rise

From the Wash Post:

Public confidence in President Obama's leadership has declined sharply over the summer, amid intensifying opposition to health-care reform that threatens to undercut his attempt to enact major changes to the system, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Among all Americans, 49 percent now express confidence that Obama will make the right decisions for the country, down from 60 percent at the 100-day mark in his presidency. Forty-nine percent now say they think he will be able to spearhead significant improvements in the system, down nearly 20 percentage points from before he took office.

As challenges to Obama's initiatives have mounted over the summer, pessimism in the nation's direction has risen: Fifty-five percent see things as pretty seriously on the wrong track, up from 48 percent in April.

But there has been a notable increase in optimism about the length of the recession: Half of all Americans expect it to be over within the next 12 months. In February, just 28 percent said the recession would end that rapidly.

Obama's economic stimulus plan has come under attack from Republicans, who say it has failed to bring tangible benefits. But in the poll, almost twice as many say the program has made things better as say it has made things worse (43 percent to 23 percent), with a third saying the plan has had no effect.

The president's overall approval rating stands at 57 percent, 12 points lower than its April peak, as disapproval has ticked up to 40 percent, its highest yet. On specific issues, Obama received more mixed marks. A majority, 53 percent, now disapprove of his handling of the federal budget deficit, and his ratings on health care continue to deteriorate. On the marquee issue of the economy, 52 percent approve of his actions, unchanged from June.

Despite the decline in general confidence in Obama, there is still little competition in the battle for public trust: Just 21 percent say they think congressional Republicans will make the right decisions for the country's future, while 35 percent have confidence in Democrats.

Disapproval of Obama's handling of the health-care issue reached 50 percent in the new poll, the highest of his presidency, and 42 percent of those surveyed say they now "strongly disapprove" of the way he is dealing with his main domestic priority. Views of the president's actions on reform have dropped most sharply among seniors and independents.

The poll was completed just as a new debate about a public health insurance option erupted after administration officials appeared to signal their willingness to jettison the proposal as part of an eventual compromise. White House officials later insisted that there had been no change in their support for the public option as they sought to reassure Democrats furious about what they regarded as an administration cave-in.

In the survey, 52 percent of Americans said they favor the government's creation of a new health insurance plan to compete with private insurers, while 46 percent are opposed. That is a big shift from late June, when 62 percent backed the notion and 33 percent opposed it.

The drop in support for the public option has been particularly steep among political independents, the closely watched group so critical to the Democratic takeover of Congress in 2006 and Obama's victory last year. Two months ago, independents supported the public option by a 2 to 1 ratio. Now, 50 percent are in favor, and 47 percent are opposed.

Seniors have also become decidedly negative toward the proposal: In June, seniors were evenly split on the plan, but now a majority strongly oppose the idea ...

Two New Gallup Polls

Town Hall Meetings Generate Interest, Some Sympathy

More than two-thirds of Americans (69%) are closely following news accounts of protests at town hall meetings on healthcare reform. While 34% say the protests make them more sympathetic to the protestors’ viewpoints, 21% say less sympathetic; 36% say they haven’t affected their views either way ...

Reaction to the protests is highly partisan. A little more than half of Republicans say the protests have made them more sympathetic to the protestors' views. About 4 out of 10 Democrats, on the other hand, say the protests have made them less sympathetic ... Booing members of Congress and shouting down opponents are more likely to be seen as abuses of democracy.

Amid Debate, Obama Approval Rating on Healthcare Steady

More Americans disapprove (49%) than approve (43%) of Barack Obama’s handling of healthcare policy, hardly changed from views expressed in mid-July. Americans are evenly divided on his handling of the economy and give him more positive than negative marks on foreign affairs and education ...

Of four issues tested in the Aug. 6-9 Gallup Poll, Obama fares the worst on healthcare. His ratings on the economy are slightly better, with Americans evenly divided in their opinions of how he is handling this issue. The president gets better ratings for his handling of both foreign affairs and education.