A Blue View

Staying On Message

A pretty cool video:

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State Of The Race

From Nate Silver:

There are two things that John McCain is NOT doing.

Number one, John McCain is NOT closing Obama's margin as quickly as he needs to (if indeed he is closing it at all). This appears to be a 6- or 7- point race right now ... that's where we have it, that's where RCP has it, that where Pollster.com has it. In order to beat Barack Obama, John McCain will need to gain at least one point per day between now and the election. Our model does think that McCain has pared about a point off Obama's margin -- but it has taken him a week to do so. Now, McCain needs to gain six more points in six more days. And he needs to do so with no real ground game, no real advertsing budget, and no one particularly strong message. Not easy.

Number two, John McCain is NOT gaining ground in the states that matter the most. The top tier of states in this election are Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania. There is lots of lots of polling in these states, particularly in Virgnia and Pennsylvania, and it's all coming up in roughly the same range, showing Obama leads in the high single digits (in VA and CO) or the low double digits (in PA). The second tier of states is probably Ohio, Florida and Nevada. McCain seems to be getting a bit stronger in Florida; Obama seems to be getting a bit stronger in Ohio and Nevada. McCain does seem to have halted Obama's progress in some of the third-tier states, particularly Missouri and North Carolina. On the other hand, some other third-tier states, like New Mexico and particularly New Hampshire (where Obama is getting some insane numbers lately), now appear to be off the table.

My feeling is that John McCain still needs some sort of external contingency to win the presidency. Even if some of the more conservative turnout models are correct AND even if he were to win large majorities of the undecided vote, he is probably a little bit too far behind to catch up. Rather, McCain will need to find some way to eat into some fraction of Obama's decided vote, and because most of Obama's support is quite hard (e.g. enthusiastic), that will not be easy to do.

Is McCain's "Spread the Wealth" A Dog Whistle Message?

From Michael Crowley:

I was initially skeptical about John Judis's suggestion that McCain's fixation with Obama's "spread the wealth" comment is really a dog-whistle message about race--i.e. an implication that Obama wants to take money from white America and give it to blacks. But McCain's appearance on Larry King tonight has me thinking again. Check out this very weird exchange, which begins with King finally (if clumsily) asking the obvious question about this line of attack:

KING: Concerning spreading the wealth, isn’t the graduated income tax spreading the wealth? If you I and pay more so that 'Jimmy' can get some, some for him--or pay for a welfare recipient, that’s spreading the wealth.

MCCAIN: That’s spreading the wealth in the respect that we do have a graduated income tax. That’s a far cry from taking from one group of Americans and giving to another. I mean that’s dramatically different. I mean Senator Obama has clearly talked about for years redistributive policices. And that’s not the way we create wealth in America. [emphasis added]

Taking from one group and giving to another? In some "dramatically different" way from graduated income taxation? What on earth is McCain talking about?

This is either complete nonsense--or else Judis is right: It's a vile insinuation.

McCain's 'Comeback' Talk Could Backfire

From the Hill:

Barack Obama supporters who might think their vote isn't needed because several polls show the Democratic nominee with wide leads could be motivated to show up on Election Day by John McCain's assertion this week that the race is closer than the polls suggest.

McCain is clearly trying to motivate his supporters, who might have thought all is lost, but some of his efforts could awake a sleeping giant in new and young voters who support Obama but might have thought they weren't needed, Democratic analysts said.

Monday night, McCain's lead pollster Bill McInturff released a polling memo outlining how the race is likely closer in swing states than it appears and detailing how the Republican nominee can still win next week {See Could The Polls Be Wrong?}. Polls like those, analysts said, can scare Obama supporters into seeing the election through to the end.

Obama has made it clear in his "closing argument" stump speech that voter complacency is a concern despite his campaign's assurances that it's not. "Don’t believe for a second this election is over," Obama said Tuesday in North Carolina. "Don’t think for a minute that power concedes.  We have to work like our future depends on it in this last week, because it does."

While Democratic analysts said they think the Obama campaign is aware of and actively combating potential voter complacency, those contacted for this story said Tuesday that McCain's and his aides' recent arguments that they are coming back could help motivate Obama voters in a way that the campaign's GOTV efforts can't.

Mark Nevins, a Democratic strategist in Pennsylvania ... added that equally important, the specter of fear that some Democrats have that McCain might be closing the gap is enough to keep volunteers knocking on doors, phone banking and signing up to drive their friends to the polls. And new voters who aren't in the habit of showing up or might be burnt out by the continuous ads from both candidates are encouraged to follow the race to the end by the idea that the race is closer than polls suggest ...

After heartbreaking losses in 2000 and 2004, Democrats grow almost naturally fearful when polls look too good to be true, and the strategist noted that "nervous as can be" could be a healthy demeanor this close to Election Day.

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: Obama Up By 3%, 7% Or 11% Depending On Who You Think Will Vote

Now they want us all to become polling experts! From Gallup:

Barack Obama begins the final week of the campaign with an advantage over John McCain in both Gallup likely voter models, up by 49% to 46% using the traditional model and leading 51% to 44% using an expanded likely voter model.

The current results, based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 26-28, are essentially the same as in Tuesday's report, and show a slightly closer race than Gallup tracking had reported prior to that ..

Obama has a slightly larger lead among the pool of all registered voters, currently at 51% to 42%. These percentages have been stable throughout October, and the current figures precisely match the average for the month to date. (Complete trend here.) {Note: this is the "model" I've been reporting on since Feb.}

Are You Better Off Than You Were 4 Or 8 Years Ago?

Another GOP Pillar Falls Away: Taxes

More evidence the Reagan "revolution" is dead. From the Wall St Journal:

Republicans are losing ground in the battle over taxes -- turf they have dominated since the Reagan administration -- even against a Democratic presidential candidate who is promising substantial tax increases.

Sen. John McCain has made tax policy the centerpiece of his homestretch pitch to voters: The Arizona Republican unveiled an ad Tuesday accusing Sen. Barack Obama of pitching "higher taxes" and planning to "spread your income," then hammered his Democratic rival's economic plan in Pennsylvania.

Yet the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, conducted in mid-October, showed voters preferred Sen. Obama to Sen. McCain on taxes by 14 percentage points. After Labor Day, Sen. McCain had a one-point edge on that issue.

"It's a stunning reversal of fortune on a core Republican strength," says Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, who helps conduct the poll.

... an Obama victory in Tuesday's presidential election would mark a turning point in modern-day tax politics. Since Ronald Reagan campaigned on tax cuts in 1980, and Democrat Walter Mondale disastrously ran on their reversal four years later, White House candidates embracing income-tax increases have fared poorly.

Obama supporters say his winning tax message confirms underlying shifts in American attitudes, that eight years of falling median incomes and stagnant wages may have blunted Sen. McCain's tax appeal to the aspiring rich. The financial crisis -- fueled by reports of Wall Street excess -- has stoked populist sentiments against the upper class. And voters may believe it is time to pay the bill for an era of big deficits.

"I know historically Democrats raise taxes, and if that's what we need to do to get us through all this turmoil, we have to do it," Denise Sobel, a 43-year-old registered Republican, said at an Obama rally in Leesburg, Va. She said she voted for President George W. Bush twice and plans to vote for Sen. Obama ...

Could The Polls Be Wrong?

From the Wash Post:

Could the polls be wrong?

Sen. John McCain and his allies say that they are. The country, they say, could be headed to a 2008 version of the famous 1948 upset election, with McCain in the role of Harry S. Truman and Sen. Barack Obama as Thomas E. Dewey, lulled into overconfidence by inaccurate polls.

"We believe it is a very close race, and something that is frankly very winnable," Sarah Simmons, director of strategy for the McCain campaign, said yesterday.

Few analysts outside the McCain campaign appear to share this view ... Still, there appears to be an undercurrent of worry among some polling professionals and academics. One reason is the wide variation in Obama leads: Just yesterday, an array of polls showed the Democrat leading by as little as two points and as much as 15 points. The latest Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll showed the race holding steady, with Obama enjoying a lead of 52 percent to 45 percent among likely voters.

Some in the McCain camp also argue that the polls showing the largest leads for Obama mistakenly assume that turnout among young voters and African Americans will be disproportionately high. The campaign is banking on a good turnout among GOP partisans, whom McCain officials say they are working hard to attract to the polls.

"I have been wondering for weeks" whether the polls are accurately gauging the state of the race, said Steven Schier, a political scientist at Carleton College in Minnesota. Borrowing from lingo popularized by former defense secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, Schier asked what are the "unknown unknowns" about polling this year: For instance, is the sizable cohort of people who don't respond to pollsters more Republican-leaning this year, perhaps because they don't want to admit to a pollster that they are not supporting the "voguish" Obama?

If so, that could mean the polls are routinely understating McCain's support. "I have no evidence that this is happening," Schier said, but he added: "I'm still thinking there's a 25 percent chance that this is a squeaker race and McCain pulls it out."...

The McCain campaign's case that the race is closer than many polls suggest appears to rest largely on the proposition that the composition of the electorate this year will closely resemble that in 2004.

McCain pollsters do anticipate that turnout could be even higher this year than the robust turnout four years ago, but they also expect that Democratic gains among African American voters and younger voters will be offset by higher turnout among more Republican-leaning voters. They also assert the race is tightening in battleground states, with independent voters increasingly receptive to McCain.

Read the McCain campaign memo that lays out their case.

Palin Is A Scientific Ignoramus

Sorry I didn't post this at the time, but remember Sarah Palin's first "policy" speech on children with special needs?  Did you catch the scientifically illiterate statement Palin made in it?  Watch:

The thought of this creationist, scientific ignoramus having any say in government policies on science, technology or education scares the living daylights out of me.

State Of The Race: Virginia

How far into Republican territory is Obama venturing?  Check this out from the NY Times:

Barack Obama left behind blue-state territory on Tuesday for a final week-long assault on GOP strongholds heading into next week’s election, starting here in this Shenandoah Valley city where no Democratic presidential nominee has visited since 1860.

Virginia has gone Republican in every presidential election for the past 40 years but Mr. Obama has surged to a significant lead in recent polls and has made the state one of his highest priorities in the final days ... Mr. Obama flew here ... in hopes of cementing his hold over this longtime Southern bastion of conservatism.

“No state is going to be more important in the election than this state right here,” Mr. Obama told an overflow crowd of thousands who could not fit into the James Madison University arena for his speech here. “People say, ‘Well, my vote doesn’t matter.’ This time it does. Because it’s a critical election. It’s a defining moment in our history. And because it could be real close here in Virginia.”

The 6th Congressional District that includes the Shenandoah has been represented by a Republican in Congress for 46 of the last 56 years and gave more than 60 percent of its votes to President Bush in both of his elections. The Daily Record News of Harrisonburg quoted a local historian saying that the last time a Democratic presidential nominee visited the city was 148 years ago when Stephen Douglas, another Illinois senator who came through en route to losing the election to Abraham Lincoln.

More than twice as many people showed up for Mr. Obama’s appearance as could fit into the university arena, leaving as many as 12,000 supporters outside while 8,000 packed inside, according to estimates cited by the Obama campaign.

It Came Down To Making "Palin look like a scripted robot or an unscripted ignoramus"

From Robert Draper:

The day after the ticket made its debut, it was August 30 ... I remember seeing Tucker Eskew ... wandering around the premises, looking somewhat lost. He and Wallace took charge of schooling the Alaska governor on message discipline. Two days later at the GOP convention, an adviser watched them coach Palin on how to answer routine press questions and warned Steve Schmidt that she was being overly managed. Three weeks later, Wallace arranged for the interview with her former CBS colleague Katie Couric, which proved to be a disaster. Meanwhile, Palin’s debate prep was going miserably, to the point where Schmidt had to peel off from McCain (who was having his own challenges responding to the financial crisis) and join Nicolle’s husband Mark Wallace in simplifying Palin’s prep so as to avert catastrophe. The latter efforts resulted in what one senior adviser would describe to me with palpable relief as “a campaign-saving performance.”

I’m sympathetic to Eskew and Wallace, and not just because they’re decent people. They’ve held their tongue from leaking what a couple of McCain higher-ups have told me—namely, that Palin simply knew nothing about national and international issues. Which meant, as one such adviser said to me: “Letting Sarah be Sarah may not be such a good thing.” It’s a grim binary choice, but apparently it came down to whether to make Palin look like a scripted robot or an unscripted ignoramus.

All Hail Joe And Palin

Republican Delusion

Earlier today, I asked, "Are The Republicans Setting Up A Referendum On Conservatism ... That They'll Lose?"  Now I have an official answer as to why they'd do something so stupid: most of them are deluded. 

Here's David Frum pushing back on fellow conservatives Tony Blankley & Rush Limbaugh (who he is using as proxies for Conservatism):

If I understand it correctly, the Blankley/Rush argument goes like this:

1) Reagan-style conservatism remains wildly popular with the American people. It was the "blueprint" for winning landslides between 1980 and 1994, and it remains the blueprint today.

2) Yet for some unaccountable mysterious reason, politicians are ignoring this blueprint! There is not a strong elected conservative voice in the country today.

3) So obviously what we need to do is return to the politics of the 1980s - and sit back and collect the rewards.

This argument raises one big question:

Could it be possible that the reason that we lack Reagan-style conservatives in elected office today is that they are having trouble getting elected?

... I think Rush is a great entertainer and has often been a force for good in the conservative movement. But right now, he is feeding his audience pleasing illusions that can only lead conservatives to even greater troubles in the days ahead.

What "pleasing illusions" does Frum fear?  Check out this new poll that captures Republican delusion from Stanley Greenburg:

With the country poised for its second wave election, Republican supporters are on a different page and disconnected from the rest of the country. That helps explain John McCain’s implausible close to the campaign and perhaps foretells difficulties Republicans will face dealing with the aftermath. In this special national survey with an enlarged sample of self-identified Republicans and independents who identify with Republicans, we asked the question, “who is to blame for John McCain’s possible defeat?” Republicans believe McCain will have lost because of a hostile mainstream media, economic events beyond their control and Democrats having more money and resources. Few have begun to examine bigger issues, though their views of the current campaign and the future suggest a party very out of touch with unfolding events.

• While a sizeable majority of voters say Republicans have lost in 2006 and 2008 because they have been “too conservative,” a sizeable plurality of Republicans say, it is because they have “not been conservative enough.”

• Over three-quarters of Republicans say Palin was good choice, while a majority of the electorate says the opposite.

• Two-thirds of Republicans say McCain has not been aggressive enough, but a majority of voters think they have been too aggressive.

• Looking to the future, a large majority of Republicans say the party needs to “move more to the right and back to conservative principles,” while an even larger majority of all voters say, it should move to the “center to win over moderate and independent voters.”

• Finally, almost 60 percent of Republicans say “if Barack Obama is elected, he will lead the country down the wrong path and Republicans should oppose his plans,” while 70 percent of all voters say they “should give him the benefit of the doubt and help him achieve his plans.”

Those responses are not surprising when you ask Republicans the cause of their defeats: 65 percent say the mainstream media favoring Obama, followed distantly by economic events outside anyone’s control (29 percent) and Obama and the Democrats having more money (25 percent). Only 12 percent thought that McCain wanting to continue Bush’s policies was the culprit, only 10 percent pointed to Palin and only 8 percent suggested the big spending and deficits were to blame.

Frum's conclusion:

When Rush and Blankley tell us the blueprint is there, if only we would follow it, they are telling us something that is not true. They are offering flattering illusions when we need truth. They are leading us to disaster - and beyond disaster, to irrelevance.

I certainly hope Blankley, Rush, et. al. all continue to ignore Frum's advice.

How Can Anyone Still Be Undecided?

The World Prefers Obama 3:1 Over McCain

Gallup has expanded on their European polling to now include 3/4 of the world's population, and unlike the Economist's poll, Gallup's is scientific:

Gallup Polls conducted in 73 countries from May to October 2008 reveal widespread international support for Democratic Sen. Barack Obama over Republican Sen. John McCain in the U.S. presidential election. Among these nations, representing nearly three-quarters of the world's population, 24% of citizens say they would personally rather see Obama elected president of the United States, compared with just 7% who say the same about McCain. At the same time, 69% of world citizens surveyed did not have an opinion.

World citizens are more divided over whether the outcome of the U.S. election makes a difference to their country, with 26% saying it does and 22% saying it does not. Moreover, 52% of those surveyed did not have an opinion.

Detailed, country by country results are here.

10% Down, 90% To Go

According to this interesting Web site that is tracking early voting (any vote cast prior to Election Day, be it by absentee ballot or in-person), 10.2% or 12 million people have already voted for President. The academic who runs the site, which also provides state by state breakdowns, offered this:

Early voting appears to be on track to exceed the 2004 levels. Indeed, the number of early votes cast in Georgia and North Carolina have already surpassed their 2004 numbers. The question remains if this means a greater share of the 2008 vote will be cast early, if turnout will be up overall, or - as I suspect - a combination of these two factors are in play.

GOTV Tactics: McCain's Are The Past, Obama's Are The Future

Farhed Manjoo of Slate writes about the difference between McCain's emphasis on automated phone calls to homes and Obama's text messaging to mobile phones:

On the surface, these text [messages] don't seem that different from robo-calls—they're both automated messages and both easy to ignore. But for reasons that aren't completely understood, text messaging is different: We pay attention to short messages that pop up on our phones ...

Political scientists have run dozens of such studies during the past few years, and the work has led to what you might call the central tenet of voter mobilization: Personal appeals work better than impersonal ones. Having campaign volunteers visit voters door-to-door is the "gold standard" of voter mobilization efforts, Green and Gerber write. On average, the tactic produces one vote for every 14 people contacted. The next-most-effective way to reach voters is to have live, human volunteers call them on the phone to chat: This tactic produces one new vote for every 38 people contacted. Other efforts are nearly worthless. Paying human telemarketers to call voters produces one vote for every 180 people contacted. Sending people nonpartisan get-out-the-vote mailers will yield one vote per 200 contacts. (A partisan mailer is even less effective.) Meanwhile, pinning leaflets to doors, sending people e-mail, and running robo-calls produced no discernible effect on the electorate ...

These findings create an obvious difficulty for campaigns: It's expensive and time-consuming to run the kind of personal mobilization efforts that science shows work best. Green and Gerber estimate that a door-canvassing operation costs $16 per hour, with six voters contacted each hour; if you convince one of every 14 voters you canvass, you're paying $29 for each new voter. A volunteer phone bank operation will run you even more—$38 per acquired voter. This is the wondrous thing about text-messaging: Studies show that text-based get-out-the-vote appeals win one voter for every 25 people contacted. That's nearly as effective as door-canvassing, but it's much, much cheaper. Text messages cost about 6 cents per contact—only $1.50 per new voter ...

The beauty of text messaging is that it is both automated and personalized. This is true of e-mail, too, but given the flood of messages you get each day (no small amount from Obama), you're probably more attuned to ignoring e-mail. Text messages show up on a device that you carry with you all day long—and because you probably get only a handful of them each day, you're likely to read each one.

This is especially true when the message seems to have been tailored to you specifically—Obama's often are. The campaign knows a lot about me: At the least, it knows that I live in California, and because I joined the text-message list in order to learn the V.P. pick, that I'm fairly interested in politics (and therefore likely to vote). It's possible that they might know even more; given my ZIP code and my phone number, they could potentially have tied my text-message account to my voter registration file, allowing the campaign to send me messages based on my party registration, whether I usually vote by mail, and whether I sometimes forget to vote ...

In 2006, political science grad students Aaron Strauss and Allison Dale studied how newly registered voters responded to text-message reminders sent out just before the election. The text messages increased turnout by 3.1 percentage points. Strauss says there's a simple reason why: "The most prevalent excuse for registered voters who don't cast a ballot is, 'I'm too busy' or 'I forgot.' Texting someone is a convenient, targeted, and noticeable reminder for them to schedule their Election Day activities with a block of time set aside for going to the polling place." In a post-election survey, Strauss and Dale asked voters whether they found the text messages helpful; 59 percent said yes.

2012

 

Are The Republicans Setting Up A Referendum On Conservatism ... That They'll Lose?

I have been arguing for a while that Reaganism and Voodoo Economics are dead (here, here, here and most importantly here). Marc Ambinder thinks the GOP might be, stupidly, setting up a referendum on the issue ... a referendum it looks like they're going to lose big:

Whether or not the Frums of the punditosphere are correct, it might be dangerous for the Republican Party to elevate the stakes for this election to a death match between competing ideologies.  If Barack Obama's victory is as decisive as it is shaping up to be, the Democrats can justifiably claim that conservatism itself has been rejected as a political and governing philosophy.  In the closing weeks of the campaign, as the Republican ticket continues to run against the very idea of progressive politics, they are sowing the seeds of the post-election realignment narrative. "Socialist" ... "redistributive" ... These are 20th century words with 20th century connotations ...

Obama has been talking about the larger GOP governing philosophy for a while now, but until recently, the race hasn't seemed like as much of a referendum on Republicanism; it's been more of a referendum on the Bush years.

What changed?

The GOP went all in on an ideological war.

Help Get Out The Vote! Or This'll Be The Mourning After

As A Blue View reader, I know there's no need to exhort you to vote. But I implore you to not react to all the good Obama news you see here by getting complacent, thinking that this thing is done and not doing everything you can to help Barack win the election.  Or this nightmare will happen:

Poll Of Economists: "Obama has the superior economic plan"

From the Economist magazine:

A survey of academic economists by The Economist finds the majority—at times by overwhelming margins—believe Mr Obama has the superior economic plan, a firmer grasp of economics and will appoint better economic advisers.

Our survey is not, by any means, a scientific poll of all economists. We e-mailed a questionnaire to 683 research associates, all we could track down, of the National Bureau of Economic Research, America’s premier association of applied academic economists, though the NBER itself played no role in the survey. A total of 142 responded, of whom 46% identified themselves as Democrats, 10% as Republicans and 44% as neither. This skewed party breakdown may reflect academia’s Democratic tilt, or possibly Democrats’ greater propensity to respond. Still, even if we exclude respondents with a party identification, Mr Obama retains a strong edge ...

Yet economists’ opinions should count for something because irrespective of any party affiliation, most of them approach policy decisions with the same basic tool kit. Their assessment of the candidates’ economic credentials and plans represents an informed judgment on how well they will handle difficult trade-offs between efficiency, equity, growth and consensus-building.

Regardless of party affiliation, our respondents generally agree the economy is in bad shape, that the election is important to the course of economic policy and that the housing and financial crisis is the most critical economic issue facing America.

The detailed responses are bad news for Mr McCain (the full data are available here). Eighty per cent of respondents and no fewer than 71% of those who do not cleave to either main party say Mr Obama has a better grasp of economics. Even among Republicans Mr Obama has the edge: 46% versus 23% say Mr Obama has the better grasp of the subject ...

A candidate’s economic expertise may matter rather less if he surrounds himself with clever advisers. Unfortunately for Mr McCain, 81% of all respondents reckon Mr Obama is more likely to do that; among unaffiliated respondents, 71% say so ...

On our one-to-five scale, economists on average give Mr Obama’s economic programme a 3.3 and Mr McCain’s a 2.2. Mr Obama, says Jonathan Parker, a non-aligned professor at Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management, “is a pragmatist not an ideologue. I expect Clintonian economic policies.” If, that is, crushing federal debt does not derail his taxing and spending plans.

On his plans to fix the financial crisis, Mr Obama averages 3.1, a point higher than Mr McCain. Still, some said they didn’t quite know what they were rating—reasonably enough, since neither candidate has produced clear plans of his own.

Where the candidates’ positions are more clearly articulated, Mr Obama scores better on nearly every issue: promoting fiscal discipline, energy policy, reducing the number of people without health insurance, controlling health-care costs, reforming financial regulation and boosting long-run economic growth. Twice as many economists think Mr McCain’s plan would be bad or very bad for long-run growth as Mr Obama’s. Given how much focus Mr McCain has put on his plan’s benefits for growth, this last is quite a repudiation.

Mr McCain gets his highest mark, an average of 3.5 and a clear advantage over Mr Obama, for his position on free trade and globalisation. If Mr Obama “would wake up on free trade”, one respondent says, “I could get behind the plans much more.” Perhaps surprisingly, the economists rated trade low in priority compared with the other issues listed. Only 53% say it is important or very important. Neither candidate scored at all well on dealing with the burgeoning cost of entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security.

The economists also prefer Mr Obama’s tax plans. Republicans and respondents who do not identify with either political party see Mr McCain’s tax policies as more efficient but less equitable. But the former prefer Mr McCain’s plans—43% of Republicans say they are good or very good—and the latter Mr Obama’s. Of non-affiliated respondents, 31% say Mr Obama’s are good or very good.

Either way, according to the economists, it would be difficult to do much worse than George Bush. The respondents give Mr Bush a dismal average of 1.7 on our five-point scale for his economic management. Eighty-two per cent thought Mr Bush’s record was bad or very bad; only 1% thought it was very good.

State Of The Race: Montana

The independent advertising arm of the Republican Party has decided it has to defend a state George W. Bush in 2004 won by 20 points! From the NY Times:

Montana, a usually, reliably red state that is rarely ever considered in need of defending for Republicans during presidential campaigns. Democrats who monitor advertising spending report that the “independent expenditure” unit placed a new buy today, totaling between $300,000 and $400,000. Republicans confirm.

OBAMA's Closing Argument (Full Speech)

Given in Canton Oh on Oct 27, 2008:

Republican Presidents Who Were Also Socialists

"I believe in a graduated income tax on big fortunes, and in another tax which is far more easily collected and far more effective: a graduated inheritance tax increasing rapidly with the size of the estate.

- Theodore Roosevelt

"Every dollar spent by the government must be paid for either by taxes or by more borrowing with greater debt. The only way to make more tax cuts now is to have bigger and bigger deficits and to borrow more and more money. Either we or our children will have to bear the burden of this debt. This is one kind of chicken that always comes home to roost. An unwise tax cutter, my fellow citizens, is no real friend of the taxpayer."

- Dwight D. Eisenhower

In 1986, Reagan signed legislation greatly increasing the earned income tax credit, a credit for low-income workers that reduces the impact of payroll taxes in order to boost take-home pay above poverty levels. When the credit is more than the amount of federal income taxes owed by an individual, that person receives a tax refund. "It's the best anti-poverty, the best pro-family, the best job creation measure to come out of Congress."

- Ronald Reagan

Palin's Nightmare State

From Scott Horton of Harpers:

In a speech in Des Moines, Iowa, on Saturday, Republican Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin told the crowd that an Obama presidency would present the specter of a socialist state in which fundamental American freedoms are undermined. Let’s go to the video:

Does Sarah mean a state:

• That snatches its victims off the street, denies them all form of legal process and whisks them away to secret “blacksites” where they can be tortured using all the techniques described in Arthur Koestler’s Darkness at Noon?
• That believes it can detain and hold its enemies forever without any charges or any evidence against them, denying them access to courts to prove their innocence?
• That constantly manipulates the population’s fear whenever its public popularity slips and elections begin to approach?
• That believes that it can make no errors, and that those who point to its errors are traitors?
• That systematically spies on millions of its citizens in direct violation of a criminal statute which forbids such surveillance?
• That signs new laws with its fingers crossed in the form of signing statements, so that no one knows whether the laws—or any part of them—will actually be enforced?
• That lies to its people about threats from abroad in an effort to build popular support for a series of wars and then cites the existence of those wars as a reason to suppress dissent?
• That nationalizes the debt of predatory capitalists so they suffer no punishment for their misconduct and then nationalizes major financial institutions, converting the nation’s free market system into a socialism in which crony capitalists are a privileged elite?

Sarah, you have no need to fear the future.

Rush Limbaugh: The Downfall Of The GOP

From Daniel Larison:

Robert Stacy McCain strikes again:

In other words, Rush’s 20 million listeners are what’s wrong with the Republican Party. If only they’d listen to these young Harvard graduates who know everything . . .

That isn’t what Ross said, as Ross was arguing against the obviously ridiculous claim from Limbaugh that it is somehow undesirable to win over independent and moderate voters during election campaigns.  As McCain might say, even a Harvard graduate can see the flaw in this view. 

However, in point of fact, yes, that audience is part of what’s wrong with the Republican Party.  Part of what has been wrong with the GOP is that its rank-and-file members take their political advice and insights from radio entertainers who seem to understand little about political reality and even less about policy, and who substitute bluster for understanding.  When they are confronted with an administration that does much the same, they have seemed only too willing to buy into the bluster.  They remain steadfastly loyal to a failed President and his indefensible decisions, and they break with him only when he supports measures that are absolutely intolerable and even then they do this only when the President is profoundly unpopular and no longer very influential.  This audience may have the right views about many things, but in practice that translates into reliable loyalty to a party that virtually never serves their interests, which enables the politicians who support all of the intolerable policies that they themselves reject. 

The “young Harvard graduates” and the like may not have the right answers, and indeed I think they don’t have most of the right answers, but they at least recognize that there is something deeply awry on the American right that isn’t going to be fixed by repeating worn-out mantras and slapping oneself on the back.  The Limbaugh approach recommended to his audience (which hasn’t been 20 million-strong in years) is that Republicans and conservatives have made no mistakes and need to learn nothing, except that they were not hard-core and true-believing enough according to whatever caricature of conservatism Limbaugh claims to represent, which actually might not be so very conservative after all.  Being far to the right of Limbaugh, even I can recognize the absurdity of the argument that Republicans do not need to expand their coalition beyond core constituencies.  Of course, it is only absurd if you assume that they want to win elections.

This brings me to another point ... On the verge of one of the more impressive electoral defeats in the last thirty years, members of the Bush administration have the gall to threaten other people on the right with exclusion from the ever-shrinking numbers of the GOP for the crime of having come to the conclusion that Palin is not the answer to what ails the right.  Even though she is an embodiment of exactly the sort of Republican self-congratulation that will not win elections, she has somehow become the symbol of the future.  How you respond to Palin has become a litmus test to determine whether you are worthy and have a future on the right, which is another way of saying that the right won’t have much of a future if it makes Palin loyalty tests mandatory.  Many thousands of people, and perhaps many more, who are sympathetic to a center-right agenda will gladly, enthusiastically fail such a ridiculous test.   

Obama Winning Newspaper Endorsement Race 3:1

From Editor & Publisher magazine:

The Obama-Biden ticket maintains its strong lead in the race for daily newspaper endorsements, by 170 to 69, an almost 3-1 margin and an even wider spread in the circulation of those papers.

Obama's lopsided margin, including most of the major papers that have decided so far, is in stark contrast to John Kerry barely edging George W. Bush in endorsements in 2004 by 213 to 205 ... 

Not included in the tally below are Friday's major endorsements for Obama from the Hartford Courant {Only 2nd Democrat ever} and St. Petersburg Times, and his Saturday or Sunday nods from the Providence Journal, Anchorage Daily News, Des Moines Register, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Baltimore Sun, Rochester Democrat & Chronicle, Albany Times-Union and others. McCain picked up the Cincinnati Enquirer and Arizona Republic on Saturday.

At least 38 papers have now switched to Obama from Bush in 2004, with just four flipping to McCain. The latest majors to flipflop to Obama: the papers in Providence and Fort Worth.

Another McCain Senior Moment

Sept vs. Oct Pallin Rallies Say It All

From the Las Vegas Sun:

The mood at September’s rally for Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin was electric, near fervent.

The crowd of 5,000 in Carson City shouted out “Sarah!” They hung on her every word. They offered earsplitting applause, even to a speech nearly identical to the one she had just delivered at the Republican National Convention.

Palin’s rally in Reno this week, just over a month since her first Northern Nevada visit, was different.

The fire department estimated the crowd at 3,000, but it felt smaller in the cavernous Reno-Sparks Convention Center, which holds 10,000. The crowd still clearly loved her — as at Sen. Barack Obama’s rallies, much of the preaching is done to the converted — but it did not pop with the same energy that was so palpable in September.

It’s something that’s happening across the country ... Now is not a happy time to be a McCain supporter.

There are depressing poll numbers, stories of political backbiting from McCain advisers, uneven television interviews by Palin. And those began before the news was filled with reports of the Republican National Committee’s $150,000 investment in Palin’s and her family members’ wardrobes.

“Most of us are exhausted,” said Bybee, who volunteers with the McCain campaign. “We’re tired. She’s been beat down by the media. We’ve been beat down by the media. We’re tired of fighting the big money out of Hollywood.”

She said Obama “has no experience. We don’t know who he is. Most of us are nervous. We’re scared to death.”

She said the difference in mood between the two events also lends itself to the seriousness of the time.

Not that the “lipstick on a pig” comment by Obama, which Republicans claimed was an attack on Palin, was completely forgotten. But the economic crisis and plunging stock market have overshadowed other events.

“We can’t be cheerleaders now,” Bybee said. “We’re the team now on the field.”

Still, she was proudly wearing a shirt that read, “I am Sarah Palin.”

McCain Cant Hide From His Repeated Support For Bush

Though he tried to separate himself from Bush yesterday, there's too much tape for this to fly ...

The View From Alabama: Endorsements

First, Palin's hometown newspaper endorses Obama for President, saying that if she had to step into the role, it "would stretch the governor beyond her range." Now this report from Wade Kwon deep in red territory:

Alabama may be a solid red state, with polls predicting a 20-point John McCain victory come Election Day, but the newspapers have endorsed Barack Obama by a more than 2-1 margin.

Of the eight newspapers that have published endorsements in the presidential race, five support Obama, two support McCain, and one endorsed neither. Before the cries of “liberal media bias” ring out, keep in mind that most of these same papers endorsed Republican George W. Bush in the previous two elections.

Daily Home (Talladega): “When the dust clears over campaign promises, and the truth emerges, we like a tax plan that gives more relief to the middle class. We like the choice of a running mate that is clearly qualified in foreign affairs. And we like a cool, calm, steady approach to problem solving rather than an erratic, flip-flop in the face of financial crisis. Those are the hallmarks of an Obama presidency.”

Decatur Daily: “Sen. Obama represents change the nation wants. He’s toughened up during the long series of Democratic primaries and the grueling general election campaign. He’s solid, he’s smart, and he keeps a cool head. He is the better choice to be the next president of the United States.”

Montgomery Advertiser: “Obama combines an appeal to all that is good in America, to that deep-seated knowledge that we can and should do better, with sensible policy proposals that the nation can embrace. It is time for change. Obama represents that change.”

TimesDaily (Florence): “As president, Obama would restore much of the moral high ground that has been lost. He would work closely with our allies. As to the criticism that Obama would meet unconditionally with our enemies, it appears to us that he would be practicing a bit of ancient wisdom all leaders should remember: Keep your friends close, but keep your enemies closer.”

Tuscaloosa News: “[Obama] has a vision — unity, cooperation, healing and transformation — that most Americans share. He wants to re-orient the country to empower ordinary people, not just its wealthy voters, big corporations or Washington lobbyists. He wants to make government a helpful ally, not a suspicious monitor. He wants to replace swagger and bombast with genuine concern for rights and well-being.”

Hillary Campaigns For Obama In Aurora, CO

Oct 24, 2008:

Latest Romance Novel

State Of The Race: Albuquerque

From FirstRead:

Audra and Sam Kochansky decided to come to John McCain's rally at the New Mexico state fairgrounds today "to hear what they're going to do for us." But they weren't happy with what they heard.

"More of the same," said Audra Kochansky of McCain's remarks. "This is saber-rattling," said her husband, Sam.

Although these may sound like Democratic talking points, the married pair of nurse anesthetists are lifelong Republicans, but they consider themselves undecided in this election.

Mr. Kochansky, who describes himself as a "diehard Republican who's registered independent," says that Republicans disheartened after eight years of the Bush Administration have been left with an unsavory choice.  "I'm trying to make a decision," he said. "That's not the way the Republican Party should have conducted itself." ...

"Bush has been very disappointing and I thought maybe there was some hope in McCain but quite frankly it's the same saber rattling, just a different century, and it's disappointing," said Mr. Kochansky. "I want to hear about what he can do for us middle class people. I want specific ideas. I want some specificity to a political plan. Right now it's more negative. It's what Obama's going to do to us but not what he's telling us. He votes for this package for the congressional bailout but then he blames the Democrats."

The pair also said they were surprised that the turnout for today's event, attended by less than a thousand people, was so small. 

An Albuquerque Journal poll conducted in early October showed McCain trailing Obama by five points in the state.

"Just from talking with our neighbors and such it's we're tired of the last eight years and even though McCain says he's not Bush, take a look around you," he said. "It's still the Republican Party, and unfortunately my Republican Party is still the last eight years and that's very disappointing to me." ...

But would they consider voting for Obama? "We've had eight years of saber rattling," Mr. Kochansky said. "It's time to move on, and so if Obama comes down the pike and says 'I have hope for America and this is what it's all about,' yeah, I'll vote for Obama." Mrs. Kochansky agreed.

"A Bloodbath" Inside The McCain/Palin Campaign

Trouble in Maverick-land:

From Ben Smith

She's lost confidence in most of the people on the plane," said a senior Republican who speaks to Palin, referring to her campaign jet. He said Palin had begun to "go rogue" in some of her public pronouncements and decisions.

"I think she'd like to go more rogue," he said.  

The Week In Political Cartoons

  

    

    

 

Hockey Mama for Obama

Thanks to A Blue View reader Diane for pointint out this amusing homemade video:

The "B" Hoax Fits Into 100 Year Old Pattern Of Racist Fear Mongering

The McCain Campaign actively pushes the Charles Stuart Ashely Todd story with the media:

So Fox News dutifully trumpets the story again and again:

This time, however, the hoax is quickly revealed. Rachel Maddow and Melissa Harris-Lackwell discuss how it fits into a long-time pattern that, maybe, finally, is losing its punch:

The Brown Shirts At McCain & Pallin Rallies

Do you think these fascists will quickly scurry into their slimy holds after Obama wins?  Or will there be trouble, especially if the economy gets really bad? (Also see: Building On Their Facist Theme: If You're Not With Them, You're Not "Pro America")

McCain Rally, Denver, Oct 24, 2008:

Pallin rally, Las Vegas, Oct 21, 2008:

Yeah, He Grew Up With A Silver Spoon In His Mouth

One of the things that has struck me over the coverage of Obama's visit to his cancer stricken, 85 year old Grandmother in Hawaii are the images of the place where he lived from the age of 10 till he went to college: they are graphic refutations of the McCain campaign's elitist, celebrity charges against him.  To paraphrase the joke, if George Bush was born on third base thinking he hit a triple, Obama clearly started in the bleachers yet is now halfway between third and home.

Madelyn Dunham has rented an apartment on the 10th floor of this building for 40 years:

Here are the streets the teenage Obama grew up on ... any chance they'd be mistaken for Greenwich or Beverly Hills?

Watch local news KITV's report or read their story.

World Electoral Map

The Economist wondered what the electoral map would look like if the whole world could vote (you can here):

The Economist has redrawn the electoral map to give all 195 of the world's countries (including the United States) a say in the election's outcome. As in America, each country has been allocated a minimum of three electoral-college votes with extra votes allocated in proportion to population size. With over 6.5 billion people enfranchised, the result is a much larger electoral college of 9,875 votes. But rally your countrymen—a nation must have at least ten individual votes in order to have its electoral-college votes counted.

There are few countries whose votes in the Global Electoral College are a foregone conclusion. So the winner is unlikely to be decided by a small number of "swing countries". Rather, they will have to cobble together a coalition of small, medium and large nations. (A campaign stop in Beijing is recommended, as well as a tour of Africa.) Voting in the Global Electoral College will close at midnight London time on November 1st, when the candidate with most electoral-college votes will be declared the winner.

So far, it looks like this:

You can find a more scientific poll of European opinion here.

Palin Is A Major Drag

From the Wash Post:

A majority of likely voters in a new Washington Post-ABC News national poll now have unfavorable views of the Alaska governor, most still doubt her presidential qualifications and there is an even split on whether she "gets it," a perception that had been a key component of her initial appeal ...

Obama is up by a large margin among women, 57 to 41 percent in the new Post-ABC tracking poll. The senator from Illinois just about ties McCain among white women -- 48 percent back Obama, 49 percent McCain -- a group that President Bush won by 11 points four years ago and one that had shifted significantly toward the GOP this year after the Palin pick.

In polling conducted Wednesday and Thursday evenings, after the disclosure that the Republican National Committee used political funds to help Palin assemble a wardrobe for the campaign, 51 percent said they have a negative impression of her. Fewer, 46 percent, said they have a favorable view. That marks a stark turnaround from early September, when 59 percent of likely voters held positive opinions.

The declines in Palin's ratings have been even more substantial among the very voters Republicans aimed to woo. The percentage of white women viewing her favorably dropped 21 points since early September; among independent women, it fell 24 points.

More broadly, the intensity of negative feelings about Palin is also notable: Forty percent of voters have "strongly unfavorable" views, more than double the post-convention number. Nearly half of independent women now see her in a very negative light, a nearly threefold increase.

The shift in Palin's ratings come with a pronounced spike in the percentage of voters who see her as lacking the experience it takes to be a good president. Voters were about evenly divided on that question a month and a half ago, but toward the end of September a clear majority said she was not qualified. In the new poll, 58 percent said she is insufficiently experienced ...

Waaaassssssup? Change

A clever parody ad from the guys who were in the original Bud Waaaasssssup ad.

Here's the original the ad was modeled on:

The View From Florida

The smarts of one campaign vs. the incompetence of the other, as reported by the NY Times:

Mr. McCain clearly could still win the state’s 27 electoral votes. But the battle in Florida is offering — on the widest stage of any of the contested primary states — an object lesson in the disparities in the resources, aggressiveness and political cunning that Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama are taking to contests across the country.

It is a case study of the troubles of the McCain campaign, the problems of its own making as well as those caused by forces beyond the campaign’s control, including a deeply troubled economy that is sharply driving up home foreclosures in many areas of the state. And it provides vivid evidence of the Obama campaign’s success in using its money and organizational skills to put Republicans on the defensive in once-safe states.

“He has the best political organization for a presidential campaign that I have ever seen here,” Tom Slade, a former state Republican chairman, said of Mr. Obama. “Bar none. He has run a phenomenally good campaign.” ...

Mr. Obama’s campaign moved to exploit this state’s increasingly popular, and relatively new, early voting program in a way Mr. McCain did not. He came here for two days this week — as did Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton — using high-profile appearances to hand out literature and urge supporters who turned out to vote, often right up the street from the rally. The result could be seen in long lines of people at early voting sites.

Mr. McCain’s advisers said they had put far less effort into the early voting program, instead sticking with what has worked for Florida Republicans for a decade: building up their margin with absentee ballots. But several Republicans said they were afraid that emphasis was missing the way voting behavior is changing here.

Mr. Obama has used sophisticated measures here to find and register new supporters. And Florida statistics this week, which sent a shiver of fear through Republicans, attest to his success: Democrats now have a 660,000 edge in voter registration over Republicans in the state, compared with a Democratic advantage of 280,000 voters in 2006 ...

Here as in much of the country, there have been strains between the local Republican organization and the McCain campaign about how to run in the state. Until Thursday, Mr. Crist, a Republican whom Mr. McCain said he had considered for the vice-presidential slot on the ticket, kept what appeared to be a definite distance from the McCain campaign, and made remarks — including one disputing Mr. McCain’s contention that the voting process here was subject to fraud — that were clearly unhelpful to Mr. McCain ...

From a more pragmatic point of view, Mr. Crist’s associates said he was concerned about becoming too closely identified with Mr. McCain’s campaign, worried that he would hurt his own standing with what one aide described as “Crist-Obama voters.”

The Vet Who Did Not Vet

Fox News VP: "If Ms.Todd's Story is a Hoax McCain Campaign Over"

John Moody, Executive VP of FOX News:

If the incident turns out to be a hoax, Senator McCain's quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting.

Ms.Todd today confessed to lying about her initial accusation that a "very dark skinned black man" attacked her and carved a "B" on her face:

Palin As Cleopatra

A very intriguing, provocative column from conservative Kathleen Parker:

A brilliant 75-year-old scholar and raconteur confessed to me over wine: "I'm sexually attracted to her. I don't care that she knows nothing"  ... McCain had met Palin only once -- in February, at the governors' convention in Washington -- before the day he selected her as his running mate. The second time was at his Sedona, Ariz., ranch on Aug. 28, just four days before the GOP convention ...

One does not have to be a psychoanalyst to reckon that McCain was smitten. By no means am I suggesting anything untoward between McCain and his running mate. Palin is a governor, after all. She does have an executive résumé, if a thin one. And she's a natural politician who connects with people.

But there can be no denying that McCain's selection of her over others far more qualified -- and his mind-boggling lack of attention to details that matter -- suggests other factors at work. His judgment may have been clouded by . . . what?

That men are at a disadvantage when attractive women are present is a fact upon which women have banked for centuries. Ignoring it now profits only fools. McCain spokesmen have said that he was attracted to Palin's maverickness, that she reminded him of himself.

Recognizing oneself in a member of the opposite sex (or the same sex, as the case may be) is a powerful invitation to bonding. Narcissus fell in love with his own image reflected in the river, imagining it to be his deceased and beloved sister's. In McCain's case, it doesn't hurt that his reflection is spiked with feminine approval.

As my husband observed early on, McCain the mortal couldn't mind having an attractive woman all but singing arias to his greatness. Cameras frequently capture McCain beaming like a gold-starred schoolboy while Palin tells crowds that he is "exactly the kind of man I want as commander in chief." This, notes Draper, "seemed to confer not only valor but virility on a 72-year-old politician who only weeks ago barely registered with the party faithful."

... though it isn't over yet, it seems clear that McCain made a tragic, if familiar, error under that sycamore tree. Will he join the pantheon of men who, intoxicated by a woman's power, made the wrong call?

Had Antony not fallen for Cleopatra, Octavian might not have captured the Roman Empire. Had Bill resisted Monica, Al Gore may have become president, and Hillary might be today's Democratic nominee.

The $150,000 Wardrobe

Did you catch Hardball last night?  If not, Chris Mathews reported that Palin's $150k wardrobe costs $23k more than Joe the Plumber's house!  A clash of symbols wouldn't you say?

GOP Forms Circular Firing Squad

Given Where The Race Stands, the circular firing squad is starting up among the GOP, according to the Politico:

With despair rising even among many of John McCain’s own advisors, influential Republicans inside and outside his campaign are engaged in an intense round of blame-casting and rear-covering—-much of it virtually conceding that an Election Day rout is likely.

A McCain interview published Thursday in the Washington Times sparked the latest and most nasty round of Washington finger-pointing, with senior GOP hands close to President Bush and top congressional aides denouncing the candidate for what they said was an unfocused message and poorly executed campaign ... 

These public comments offer a whiff of an increasingly acrid behind-the-scenes GOP meltdown—a blame game played out through not-for-attribution comments to reporters that operatives know will find their way into circulation.

Top Republican officials have let it be known they are distressed about McCain’s organization. Coordination between the McCain campaign and Republican National Committee, always uneven, is now nearly dysfunctional, with little high-level contact and intelligence-sharing between the two ...

At his Northern Virginia headquarters, some McCain aides are already speaking of the campaign in the past tense. Morale, even among some of the heartiest and most loyal staffers, has plummeted. And many past and current McCain advisors are warring with each other over who led the candidate astray.

One well-connected Republican in the private sector was shocked to get calls and resumes in the past few days from what he said were senior McCain aides – a breach of custom for even the worst-off campaigns ...

“The cake is baked,” agreed a former McCain strategist. “We’re entering the finger-pointing and positioning-for-history part of the campaign. It’s every man for himself now.”

A circular firing squad is among the most familiar political rituals of a campaign when things aren’t going well. But it is rare for campaign aides to be so openly participating in it well before Election Day.

Where The Race Stands

From Nate Silver:

This is not the time [10/23] when John McCain can afford a bad polling day. And yet he's had perhaps his worst one of the year.

The national trackers were essentially a push -- three moved toward Obama, two toward McCain, two were flat -- but the action today is at the state level. And boy, there is a lot of action: 29 new state polls enterring our database. And many of them contain great news for Obama ...

As a result of all of this, there is now no perceptible rebound for John McCain; in fact, the race may still be trending toward Obama, although the safer assumption is that it's flat. Meanwhile, Obama's electoral position appears as strong as ever. John McCain's chances of winning the election have dwindled to 3.7%, down from 6.5% yesterday.