Independents Transfused As Dems Bleed, & GOP Hemorrhages, Support

Gerald Seib:

The fastest-growing political group in America is "none of the above."

There is mounting evidence that even as Democrats slog through a bruising health debate, mounting deficits and bleak unemployment numbers, those political difficulties aren't doing much to directly help their foes, the Republicans. In fact, Republicans themselves are sliding in public esteem, so much so that some polls are finding support for GOP leaders reaching historic lows.

The category that's growing in 2009, by contrast, is political independents. Data produced by the Pew Research Center, in fact, show the share of Americans identifying themselves as independents at a historic high.

This is more than an abstract finding. There is an important contest under way that will test how the rising "pox on both your houses" thinking can affect real-life outcomes.

It's next month's governor's election in New Jersey, where the notably unpopular Democratic incumbent, Jon Corzine, could win re-election because so many people are choosing not to vote for his notably unpopular Republican foe, Chris Christie, but instead for independent candidate Chris Daggett. Mr. Daggett is having a fine time watching the two in the mainstream muddy each other while he plays to voters' discontent with the whole scene.

The latest Quinnipiac University Polling Institute survey of the state has Messrs. Christie and Corzine in a statistical dead heat, with Mr. Daggett getting the support of 14% of those surveyed. The test of this independent sentiment will be how many of those folks actually end up voting for Mr. Daggett. Historically, voters find it easier to say a couple of weeks before Election Day that they support an independent than to walk into the voting booth and actually cast a ballot for him.

In any case, Mr. Daggett personifies the most striking political trend of the year. Consider some recent evidence showing movement away from both political parties:

A Washington Post/ABC News survey released this week finds a stunning 42% of those surveyed identifying themselves as political independents, well more than those who call themselves either Democrats (33%) or Republicans (20%). The independent share has jumped eight percentage points since August.

The latest Pew Research survey, completed early this month, finds 37% identifying themselves as independents, up from 33% at the beginning of the year. Democratic and Republican affiliation both have dropped over the same period. When Pew combines its own recent findings with those of the Gallup poll back to 1939, it finds that self-identified independents now comprise a larger share of the electorate than at any time except when they reached similar levels during the Ross Perot independent boom in 1992.

In the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, the share of Americans calling themselves "strictly independent" rose to 22% in the latest survey from 18% in early summer. Throw in "leaners" -- those who say they are independent but lean toward either the Republican or Democratic party -- and the growth rose to 43% from 37% in June.

The biggest question about this trend is whether it is a temporary snapshot of the electorate -- as some voters who shifted to the Democrats last year begin their journey back to the Republican column -- or whether it represents a botched opportunity by Republicans to take advantage of the troubles Democrats are experiencing.

Certainly there's no sign yet that Republicans are benefiting. To the contrary, Pew polling has found that the share of Americans identifying themselves as Republicans at its lowest point in 30 years. Maybe that's because only 24% now say they approve of the job GOP leaders are doing, their worst approval rating for them in 15 years.

Democratic leaders don't fare much better, of course; they were getting relatively high ratings in the first half of 2009, but their approval rating of 33% represents a return to levels seen in 2008, before the age of Obama.

Those kinds of numbers tell us several things. They certainly explain the rise of populist unhappiness, reflected in Tea Parties and town-hall uprisings.

They also suggest that Republicans are suffering from a lack of a broadly popular or well-known leader to carry a message for them. And they certainly suggest that both parties could well suffer when Washington seems to argue rather than act during an economic crunch.

Yet the real-life political impact remains uncertain. Which takes us back to the New Jersey governor's election on Nov. 3. Whether Mr. Corzine wins or is toppled is a hugely important national political story in its own right, obviously. Given that the hapless campaign of Democrat Creigh Deeds seems almost certain to produce a loss in the Virginia governor's race, a win by Mr. Corzine would save Democrats from a psychologically damaging double-whammy on the most important political day since President Barack Obama was elected.

A more important indicator of national sentiment, though, may be the ultimate performance of Mr. Daggett. Rare indeed is the election where the most meaningful number is the percentage of votes won by the third-place finisher, but that may well be the case in New Jersey.